June 12th, 2018 — We will make a few tweaks to the forecast this morning, not really adding or subtracting moisture over Ohio, but rather moving it around in terms of its timing. Today looks like it may end up with a little more rainfall action statewide, and we are increasing our rain potential for Wednesday as well.Read More »
June 11th, 2018 — Moisture is still around over the state today, providing a “long tail” to the weather system that started impacting the region over the weekend. A cold front will slowly sag southward over the state today, meaning the best precipitation will likely develop central and southern Ohio, but we will not rule out scattered showers up north either, especially this morning. Rains today can be from a few hundredths to a quarter inch from US 30 northward, and .25”-.1” over central and southern Ohio. Coverage will be around 80% today.Read More »
June 8th, 2018 — The forecast pattern has become somewhat stupid this morning. Here is what we mean. Every model out there has a completely different take on what is going to happen, not just in the next few days, but all the way through the coming 10-day window. All of them have some combination of 3 systems working in, but timing is all over the place. Also, intensity of the precipitation sits in a wide range.Read More »
June 7th, 2018 — We keep our forecast dry for the next few days, but the weather set up from this weekend into early next week is becoming more and more interesting. Computer models have no idea how to handle the timing and intensity of the next round of precipitation coming our way. Before it gets here, though, we will work through more sunshine and warmer temps for today and tomorrow. Today and tomorrow, on and off clouds can mix in with the sun, as a warm front lifts back into the state. We are leaving precipitation out of our forecast here, keeping it farther north and northwest today and the first part of tomorrow.Read More »
June 6th, 2018 - Dry weather dominates the rest of the week, starting today. Sunny, dry, and pleasant conditions with low relative humidity and gradually warming temps will be here through Friday. We may have to look at a bit of on and off cloud activity tomorrow, but nothing that brings any kind of moisture, and sun will still be a big part of the day.Read More »
June 5th, 2018 - So, today is the wet blanket on our week. The second half of the week, tomorrow through Friday looks awesome! Sunny, dry, pleasant with low relative humidity and gradually warming temps. But here is today, standing in stark contrast. I’ll be honest. I feel we should be sunny, dry and pleasant, but instead, we are having to deal with clouds wrapping around a strong low off to the northeast and those clouds have the potential to drop a bit of precipitation on us too. This is one of those meteorological set ups that don’t make a lot of sense, but they are what they are. We don’t like it. We just can’t stand back and not acknowledge the pesky moisture that can be around. So, today we will see clouds dominate most of our day over most of the state, and we won’t rule out scattered showers too, potentially giving a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch over 90% of the state.Read More »
June 4th, 2018 - A mostly dry week ahead of us. Strong high pressure is working into the western Corn Belt out of the Great Plains. This high brings dominant sunshine to Ohio today, and will keep dry weather top of mind for most of the week. Temperatures today will be near normal, slightly warmer than yesterday, but winds should not be as strong. A big question mark hovers over tomorrow. We prefer a dry forecast solution and desire to stay with a mostly dry focus in our specific Ohio forecast. However, several computer models are trying to bring minor moisture over the region tomorrow morning into mid-late afternoon, sagging it from north to south.Read More »
June 1st, 2018 - Another round of moisture lifts into Ohio today, and we look to have some good coverage of moisture. A strong batch of showers and thunderstorms moved out of the central plains into Missouri yesterday. This action has continued to move east and will be tracking across the state today. We can add another .25-.5” over 70% of the state. The map is a snapshot of action at midday today. We should see this action moving off to the east by tonight, but likely still wake up to some clouds over far eastern Ohio and western PB tomorrow morning, while the rest of the state sees sun work through the clouds.Read More »
May 31, 2018 — No change in our short term forecast this morning, as we have rain over most of Ohio for the next two days yet. As expected, the heaviest rains were farther west over Indiana yesterday, where the center of old Alberto’s circulation tracked through. Still, western Ohio had some good moisture develop in the late afternoon and evening, with scattered action across other parts of the state.Read More »
May 30, 2018 — The rest of the week looks a little damp as the remains of Alberto push into the eastern corn belt. Moisture moves into the state this morning and will slowly spread from there. The at the center of this circulation that used to be Alberto is moving up the Indiana-Illinois border through midday but then looks to move more east and north, ending up in NE Indiana by sunset. From there the system lifts into into southern Michigan by midnight tonight, taking the heavy rains with it.Read More »
One more fully dry day over the state today. Temperatures will be rather warm in all areas, above normal by a good 5-10 degrees at least. The weekend starts dry tomorrow morning, but we are having to advance our arrival time of moisture forward just a little bit. We are going to allow for scattered showers to arrive as soon as tomorrow midday and afternoon. Rain chances linger through tomorrow night and through Sunday, but we have a similar duration of rains in our forecast as we were talking earlier in the week. To be clear, we are not increasing our rain totals as all at this point…but rather just looking for the rain to start sooner, and therefore end sooner. We will put rain totals for the entire state still at .25”-.75” but feel it will take thunderstorms to put areas into the upper part of the range. Most of us will be closer to the .25” side.
The forecast pattern is unchanged this morning, with dry weather in full control for today, tomorrow and most of Saturday morning. Saturday afternoon, action begins to develop across Ohio. Sunday looks to be the day where we see wholesale spreading of moisture into and across the state. It starts as hit and miss showers and we end up seeing several well-organized waves move through. Rain coverage for Sunday will be about 80% of Ohio. WE continue to see scattered showers move through for Memorial Day on Monday as well, but coverage pulls back to only 40%. Combined, we can see rains of .25”-.5” over 75% of the state for Sunday and Monday of the holiday weekend. This represents a lowering of the upper end of our forecasted range from yesterday, as we do not think there as big of a threat of thunderstorms. A few showers may still pop up over far eastern Ohio into early Tuesday, but action really will be dying down and moving away by then.
Dry weather dominates the rest of the week. Today will be somewhat of a transition day, as we still likely have to deal with some lingering clouds across the state. But, we will see increasing amounts of sunshine today in the east and a nice day over the rest of the state, and no new moisture. We stay dry for tomorrow, Friday and most of Saturday. Saturday, we have to issue a disclaimer, though. Clouds will be building into southern Ohio through the day and at this point we can’t rule out the odd shower two in far southern Ohio. The coverage will be minor, but we see this action developing with more frequency in KY and WV Saturday, and we have to leave the door open into southern Ohio as an offshoot.
Sunday looks to be the day where we see wholesale spreading of moisture into and across the state.
Rain tracks across Ohio today. We can pick up another .25”-1” of rain over 80% of the state. Rain continues tomorrow but will be falling apart by mid to late morning in all areas except eastern Ohio. As the rains taper off, we should see clouds break up and we still think that western Ohio may see good sunshine before sunset tomorrow. The rest of the state waits until Thursday to see good sun.
Dry weather holds for Thursday and Friday. We are also looking to push the arrival of our next batch of showers back a little bit into this holiday weekend. The pattern suggests that we see sunny, warm, dry air hold through Saturday and perhaps even most of Sunday. There are chance of thunderstorms coming back Sunday afternoon, but the coverage is very far stretched. We do not think we escape the moisture for the weekend, but rather we end up pushing it back about 36 hours into Sunday night and Monday.
A few changes to next week’s rain potential in terms of timing, but in general, we still see the same overall amount of moisture spread over the next 2 and a half weeks. Rain is slowly spreading northward across the state today. Areas from I-70 southward in Ohio see action this morning and into midday, and then this afternoon we start to see the light moisture sneak farther north. Still, a large part of northern Ohio may end up with no significant rainfall until overnight tonight, when scattered showers increase in frequency, intensity and coverage. We have rain in the forecast through tomorrow and Sunday. While action seems to die off quicker to the west, leading to a drier Monday afternoon period in Indiana, we draw the short straw here, and are actually seeing moisture linger and intensify through Monday and Tuesday. In fact, we may not see precipitation completely leave the area until overnight Tuesday night.
No change in our forecast pattern this morning, we still see more wet days than dry over the coming 10 days, and this unsettled pattern does not look like it comes to an end until late next week.Read More »
oday looks very similar to yesterday. The setup is the same. Strong southwest winds bring temps to above normal levels. Low humidity will bring more drying. This will be the last dry day before our front arrives.
We are leaving our forecast for tomorrow and Thursday entirely unchanged. Rain starts around mid to late morning tomorrow morning as an approaching cold front works into Illinois. However, the front is relatively slow moving, as it still has a couple of pulses of low pressure to move up it through Friday. Scattered showers hold through the rest of tomorrow afternoon and Friday. The best chance for stronger rain and thunderstorms will be overnight tomorrow night, but the threat is minimal at this time. We are putting rain totals at .1”-.9” with coverage at 90%. Thunderstorms look to stay mostly farther north and west up into the thumb of Michigan. We won’t rule them out down in northern Ohio, but think the threat is low.
o significant changes this morning to our nearby forecasts. We have scattered showers and light rain hanging around through the day today and it will finally be moving away to the east tomorrow morning. We can see additional rain totals of .25”-.5” today in the heaviest areas, and a few hundredths to a tenth or two elsewhere. Rain coverage approaches 70% today.
We turn drier tomorrow as rain leaves the region. Clouds linger over the state through at least the first half of the day, but we should see sunshine eventually win out. We are dry for all of Thursday and the start of Friday as well. Our next front is still on track for late Friday afternoon and evening, but it is showing less moisture as it moves through. Right now we are pulling rain totals back to a few hundredths to .25”, still over 90% of the state. This will be a welcome change, as it really will allow for shorter delays in fieldwork.
Sun to start today, but moisture is moving in a little faster than we had been looking at as we left you last week. We had been looking at action waiting until tomorrow and Wednesday to move across Ohio. Now, we see rains pushing into SW Ohio this afternoon, bringing rain totals up to half an inch. From there, rain spreads north and east through the overnight and tomorrow. Additional rains in that period of .25”-.5” will bring 36 hour totals (through Wednesday morning) to .25”-.1” over 80% of Ohio. This will bring back some field work delays. Combined rain totals will be in the upper part of the range in parts of far southwest and southeast Ohio. The map below shows potential rain totals now through midnight tomorrow night.
Since the action is moving in faster, it is gone faster. We should be dry for most of Wednesday, although clouds will be tough to break up through the morning, and we can’t rule out a lingering shower in far eastern OH.
Dry weather continues through Monday. Temps will be climbing slightly through the dry stretch, but will not really exceed normal. Most of this is due to the fact that we really do not see any significant south wind over the weekend, and see more easterly flow, which does not promote strong warming. The set up will produce some drying, but time will tell if it is enough. The same can be said about a rise in soil temperatures.
As the narrative has been pretty much all week, the Tuesday-Wednesday period next week really is the major point of consternation in our forecast. Rains look to push farther north on Tuesday into Indiana, but here we see mostly just renegade moisture that may be content to stay in cloud form through Tuesday afternoon. Down near the river, we likely have to allow for scattered showers Tuesday morning but we are reluctant to talk up action of any major intensity father north.