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Reasons to be bullish or bearish soybeans

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients

There are many factors that affect the futures market. It’s easy to rationalize why the market could be headed for a rally or a decline at any given time.  Last week I discussed the reasons to be bearish or bullish corn.  This week I discuss beans. 

Reasons To Be Bearish:

  • The most massive carryout in bean history – currently at 950 million bushels
  • Good weather throughout much of Brazil for most of the growing season
  • The Brazil harvest is beginning this week and will be in full swing before the end of January
  • Lack of adequate storage requires South America to move their beans shortly after harvest
  • China has not bought many US beans this year
  • The Asian Swine Flu in China could be much worse than stated and demand for soybeans could be greatly reduced
  • China claims to have found substitutes for soy in their pork diets
  • China has adequate stocks of soybeans and could wait a year to replenish their supply without buying US production
  • Last year Argentina had one of the worst droughts in 40 years.
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Top stories of 2018: No. 3

Rut of a different nature

Few harvests around Ohio were mud-free in 2018. In what was a very wet year in general for the state, the harvest season continued the trend. This left no shortage of ruts, stuck equipment and frustrated farmers and the wet weather pushed harvest very late into the year. Ty Higgins gathered up some of the muddy photos to share online because harvest misery loves company.

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Top stories of 2018: No. 6

Two fires, a Fayette County hog farm and the beloved Darke County Fair hog barn were lost this year

Two of the year’s top stories involve unfortunate hog barn fires — a commercial facility in Fayette County and a revered old building at the Darke County Fair. Approximately 5,000 hogs were killed in the Fayette County fire and the memories, architecture and history of the grand, old building at the Darke County fair is not replaceable.

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Top stories of 2018: No. 5

 

Logan County family finds hole in farm field 40 feet deep

A Logan County family made an interesting discovery in one of their farm fields this spring in preparation for planting. Lucas Yoesting, 15, was riding his dirt bike on his family’s rural-Zanesfield property when he noticed a large hole in one of the fields

“It goes straight down,” said Sunny Yoesting. “You can see and hear the water below running.”

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Top stories of 2018: No. 8

Director Daniels reflects on service to Ohio agriculture after his last day on the job

It is no secret that Ohio agriculture and the Kasich Administration were at odds leading up to the governor signing an executive order to implement increased farm regulations in targeted watersheds by declaring them distressed. This tension led to extensive #WaterDrama18. Caught in the middle of all of the drama was the Ohio Department of Agriculture. This eventually led to the dismissal of Director David Daniels just weeks before the November elections. Daniels shared his thoughts.

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Reasons to be bullish or bearish corn

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients

There are so many factors that could affect the corn futures market. It’s easy to rationalize why the market could be headed for a rally or a decline at any given time.  Following lists several reasons to be bullish or bearish corn right now.

Reasons To Be Bullish Corn:

  • Exports have been really strong
  • US projected carryout is the tightest it’s been since 2014
  • World projected carryout has been getting tighter the last couple of years
  • Rumors of Chinese interest in buying US corn
  • US feed demand is expected to remain steady or be higher for the next year based upon animal numbers
  • The ethanol mandate makes it likely demand for corn in this sector will remain steady
  • Basis values are significantly higher than during the harvest

Reasons To Be Bearish Corn:

  • Money managers are buying corn and prices haven’t increased
  • Ethanol plants complain they aren’t profitable and no additional needs beyond the mandate are needed
  • The South American crops looks good so far and exports will start soon
  • Ukraine continues to compete with the US on price, potentially hurting additional US export demand
  • Technical indicators suggest corn futures could drift lower

Market Action – How I Collected 29 Cents Of Premium On 10% Of My 2018 Corn Production

This week I heard an analyst who was against selling options even if the odds were 85% that the options would expire worthless. 

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Top stories of 2018: No. 10

Our web site keeps track of the stories that generate the most interest and at the end of the year we like to review the top stories to gain insight into how to better serve readers of our web and print content and our radio listeners. Plus, it is always fun to see which story comes out on top. To revisit all of these favorite web stories and videos in the last year, look for “2018 top stories of the year” on the right side of this web page. In addition to these top posts, other noteworthy drivers of web traffic in 2018 included the Ohio and Pro Farmer crop tours, the Ohio State Fair livestock show results, and Between the Rows. Weather challenges, the tough farm economy, and all things draft horse also garnered major web traffic in the last 12 months. Here is the tenth most popular web story from 2018

  1. Kasich announces executive order directed at agriculture and water quality

This is the story that kicked off #WaterDrama18 after Governor John Kasich signed an executive order to take action on water quality in Lake Erie with Ohio’s agriculture in the crosshairs.

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Merry Christmas!

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How will the shutdown affect USDA functions?

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue today detailed which functions of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will remain available in the event of a lapse in government funding.

“There may be a lapse in funding for the federal government, but that will not relieve USDA of its responsibilities for safeguarding life and property through the critical services we provide,” said Secretary Perdue.  “Our employees work hard every day to benefit our customers and the farmers, ranchers, foresters, and producers who depend on our programs. During a shutdown, we will leverage our existing resources as best we can to continue to provide the top-notch service people expect.”

Some USDA activities will be shut down or significantly reduced and some USDA employees will be furloughed.  However, certain USDA activities would continue because they are related to law enforcement, the protection of life and property, or are financed through available funding (such as through mandatory appropriations, multi-year discretionary funding, or user fees). 

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Hops production picking up in Ohio

By Matt Reese

Next month more than 75 Ohio hop growers will gather for the 2019 Ohio Hops Conference and Trade Show in Columbus. The Jan. 9 and 10 event is a sign that, as Ohio’s craft beer production has boomed in recent years, agriculture is starting to follow to meet the exploding demand for one of the key ingredients for brewing beer.

Members of the Ohio Hops Growers Guild (OHGG) have more than 70,000 hop plants under cultivation and many craft beer brewers and drinkers put a premium on Ohio-grown ingredients. Ohio’s climate, however, does make hop production challenging.

A century ago, Ohio was home to very robust hop production to match the state’s substantial brewing industry. In subsequent years, though, Ohio’s insect and disease issues pushed the nation’s hop production to the drier climates in the Pacific Northwest. But with the recent brewery boom, many farms are again taking a look at Ohio hop production.

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Christmas comes early with a Dec. 20 Farm Bill

By Matt Reese and Ty Higgins

Today, President Donald Trump signed the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018.

“With the passage of the farm bill we are delivering to the farmers and ranchers, who are the heart and soul of America, all sorts of things that they never even thought possible,” said President Donald Trump. “We are insuring that American agriculture will always feed our families, nourish our communities, power our commerce and inspire our nation.

“By signing this bill we are protecting our crop insurance programs and funding that producers rely on in times of disaster.”

Retired Ohio State University agricultural economics professor Carl Zulauf recently hit the high points of the 800-plus-page 2018 Farm Bill.

“This is a largely a bill that is a 5-year extension of current policy with a few exceptions in each title. The biggest exception is the Conservation Title. There are major changes in that title across all of the different programs.

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Market volatility ahead

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

Producers across the country are hoping grain prices do better in 2019. Next month, USDA will be releasing their final estimates for 2018 U.S. corn and soybean production and yields as well as quarterly grain stocks as of Dec. 1, 2018. Many are expecting both corn and soybean production and yields to be reduced slightly with the challenging weather in Ohio and South Dakota, which stalled the final harvest of corn and soybeans during the last half of November and into December.

Dec.1 was a big day for producers. On that date during supper, U.S. President Trump and China President Xi sat down to discuss trade issues. Be glad it was not a “quick” meal, as it lasted two hours. It was a meeting months in the making, yielding a tremendous amount of uncertainty on the parts of producers across Ohio and the United States. Following that meeting, we know that several things were agreed upon.

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Climate change and no-till

By Randall Reeder, Ohio State University Extension Agricultural Engineer (retired)

The federal government released a report on global climate change that predicts, among other disastrous results, that American farmers are doomed to failure. Drought, heavy rain, floods, and hot summers will destroy crop yields.

Farmers aren’t stupid. They know how to adapt to changing conditions. For example, there is a lot more acres of corn grown in Canada and our Northern Plains than 50 years ago.

Good news for the climate. If all cropland in the Midwest and Great Plains switched to continuous no-till (with cover crops) the rate of global warming would be SLOWED because carbon from the air would be sequestered in the soil as organic matter.

Crop yields for corn, soybeans and wheat (and whatever replaces them in localities) might increase despite dry summers and less groundwater for irrigation. The extra organic matter means soils would hold more water, reducing the impact of dry periods.

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Ohio fall weed survey

By Harold Watters, Ohio State University Extension agronomist

Once again your county Extension professionals went to the fields this fall to see what weeds made it through the summer in your soybean fields. There were some surprises and some expected results. It is becoming apparent that with the move to herbicide tolerant crops, we aren’t necessarily getting rid of all of our weeds — only 30% of our fields are weed free. Giant ragweed moved back into first place for worst weed, seen in 34% of fields and overtaking marestail seen in 30% of fields. Volunteer corn is next most common, and it always surprises farmers that a herbicide resistant crop would also resist the same herbicide when it volunteers the next year. Please look over the tables to see if there are familiar names on your worst weed list.

Weed Ohio rank % of fields
Giant Ragweed 1 34
Marestail 2 30
Weed free 3 30
Volunteer corn 4 17
Grass/ Giant foxtail 5 15
Waterhemp 6 10
Velvet leaf 7 9
Common ragweed 8 8
Lambsquarters 9 6
Redroot pigweed 10 5

 

I split up the state into regions — the areas of northwest and west central Ohio had the weediest fields, — as they have in the recent past.

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2018 Grain Farmers Symposium highlights

By Matt Reese

Yesterday’s 2018 Ohio Grain Farmers Symposium had a strong program that kicked off with a welcome from Lt. Governor-elect Jon Husted.

“Mike DeWine and I are working very diligently to put our administration together. We are putting the right people in place so we can get our agenda accomplished. That is our focus now in preparation for our inauguration on Jan. 14,” Husted said. “We want to make sure

workforce and training opportunities are available to everybody in rural Ohio and we also want to extend broadband to make sure that no matter where you live in Ohio you have access to the technology highway that broadband presents and creates for everybody. Those will be some of the top priorities for rural Ohio over the next few years.”

Attendees also heard updates on edge of field research from the USDA’s Agricultural Research Service, gained insights into the farm economy, and heard from Cathann Kress, Dean of the Ohio State University College of Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences.

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The pros and cons of selling straddles

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC

While last week’s bean trade with China was one of the largest single day trades ever, it was still significantly less than the market was hoping. The market will need at least three more trades like this to get excited. Plus, time is running out for U.S. exports before the South American harvest starts.

There were rumors China could make its first major corn purchase from the U.S. in 5 years. This could keep corn prices from dropping even if beans would continue to slide lower. The current rumored purchase size won’t likely be enough to spike prices much higher.

Recently I heard a farmer ask an analyst what they thought about selling straddles. The analyst said he didn’t recommend them and referred to them as “extreme trades.” I’m guessing he meant they should be avoided because they were full of risk.

With the prolonged sideways corn market at unprofitable prices, all grain marketing solutions need to be considered for me to stay profitable.

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Ohio Ag Net Podcast | Ep 86 | YAP Conference And A Caroling Record

It’s the Christmas Edition of the Ohio Ag Net Podcast, brought to you by AgriGold. Matt and Ty welcome in Bennett Musselman to talk about the upcoming Young Ag Professionals Leadership Experience (get registered at experienceyap.com). There was also a Christmas caroling World Record set in Ohio recently and Matt got all of the details about that great feat!

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