There is often conflicting information in the trades on whether farmers should be bullish or bearish. Usually there are reasons to be both. Therefore, I will often write down the reasons why the market could go up or down when developing my marketing strategy. I can then use this information to determine what I think is most likely so I can make the best trades possible given the information I know at the time.
Reasons to be bearish beans
• Seasonally the South American weather market is approaching an end
• U.S. carryout is the highest in 10 years and it’s still increasing due to slow exports
• World Stocks are still at high levels
• $10.20 beans has better returns than $4 corn for the average U.S. farmer leading to speculation increasing that U.S. farmers will plant more beans in 2018
• A possible trade war with either Mexico or China (or both).… Continue reading