Why is it so hard to predict where futures will go next year?
Largely, because, it’s impossible to predict what all U.S. farmers are going to do and what the weather will be like in the future.
- Will farmers have time to complete fall tillage – they didn’t complete all of it last month
- When will the fields be ready to plant – it was a late plant last year
- What will farmers plant – many Iowa farmers are having trouble maintaining yields with corn on corn
- What is the financial situation of farmers – there are rumors credit will be difficult for some farmers, they might plant more beans because of less input costs
- Will the new farm program change planting intentions – farmers still don’t know which program is best for their operation yet
Ultimately it usually comes down to breakeven prices in the spring when the farmer has to put seed in the ground.