Goldman Sachs estimates that crude oil may trade below $20. Ethanol plants are running on extremely tight margins. ADM announced they may even sell some ethanol plants. Japan has interest rates at negative values to curb deflation. These headlines are not bullish long-term for corn and beans. Combine this with good growing conditions in South America, the large amount of unpriced 2015 grain, and small increased carryout adjustments from the USDA report, the future of prices looks depressing.
The reality is that there is too much grain and not enough demand. New crop prices are tied to old crop and without a supply disruption from a large-scale drought in the U.S. within the next six months (the only bullish possibility I can see that would bump up prices). I’m looking for prices to remain range bound until more is known about El Nino or La Nina. A functioning crystal ball that could tell us what the weather will be like this summer would be great right now.