We wish we had different or better news for you this morning, but all we can say is the current weather pattern rolls on. Plenty of heat, plenty of sun and plenty of humidity in the forecast. We don’t have plenty of moisture…at least not from what we see right now. We are bumping up our next chance of rain about 6-12 hours, but that really is not of any major consequence to our overall pattern. When you boil it all down, we have 1 good threat of moisture in the next 10 days.
Today and tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny and hot. Like we have mentioned in previous forecasts this week, and as we have seen on radar, we cant rule out pop up, heat based thunderstorms, but the coverage will be very spotty. Friday clouds increase, and we see our best chance of showers from afternoon through the overnight and into early Saturday morning. We think we can pick up .25″-1″ over 90% of Ohio in that period, and if we can see a few stronger thunderstorms develop, that would push some isolated rain totals to over that 1 inch upper bound. The map at right shows event rain potential. With less sun and the rain, we also will pull temps back into the mid 80s that day.
Sunshine returns Saturday afternoon, but temps stay near normal. Then we go sunny, warm and dry from Sunday through next Thursday. Temps will be warmer than normal, and likely a few degrees warmer than this week, meaning a return to hot and humid conditions over most of Ohio .The increase in heat may also serve as a shutoff valve for Thunderstorms too. It may be too warm to get good convective activity going. There will be a frontal boundary trying to come in overnight next Thursday night that may bring a round of thunderstorms for the start of the extended 11-16 day forecast window. Time will tell if it holds together.
Models are not in very good agreement for the extended period, but it does look like our warmer than normal and drier than normal pattern is set to hold into late July. Expect crops (and other things) to remain subject to weather stress for the foreseeable future.