Similar weather conditions all this week to what we saw this past weekend. That means more hot, humid and mostly precipitation free weather is headed our way. We are putting in a slightly higher chance of pop up, heat based thunderstorm action every day this week, but still, that will have coverage of no more than 30% any on any given day. Today and tomorrow that threat actually will stay over the southern half to third of Ohio, even. Whenever you are in a position where you have to rely on pop up thunderstorms to supply needed moisture, you are bound to be disappointed. We think that is where a large majority of us will find ourselves this week. In the meantime, temps will be above normal. Daytime highs will generally run from 88-94 with overnight lows 68-74. Those temps will be a good 5-10 degrees above normal. Expect net drying for the week this week. The map at right shows rain potential combined from today through Friday.
Our next well organized chance of rain comes overnight Friday night through Saturday. Here, a disturbance brings potential for .25″-1″ over 80% of Ohio. The action will be mostly shower based, but thunderstorms can be a part as well, as the heat from the week will increase instability across the state. Still, it will take some of that thunderstorm activity to get into the upper end of the rain range.
Behind that system, we may take a few degrees off our highs on Sunday, but then back to the above normal temps and below normal precipitation pattern once again. We are partly to mostly sunny and dry from Sunday through next Wednesday.
The extended period continues the pattern to start. We have 2 threats of moisture to watch for the 11-16 day window. The first comes next Thursday night-Friday (16th-17th), where a cluster of showers and thunderstorms move through with .25″-.75″ potential over 70% of Ohio. After a dry weekend and start to the week of the 20th, we get a chance for widespread thunderstorms Tuesday the 21st that can bring up to 1″, but coverage no better than 50% the way it looks right now. We also expect those systems to dry somewhat before they truly do arrive here, so a bias is for the lower end of the rain ranges right now
Remember, with temps like we are forecasting, evaporation can be as high as .3″ of moisture leaving per day, and our crops in their various stages are using another .1″-.2″…that means even a good 1″ rain will only last us a few days in these temps. Net drying will be seen in all areas based on this forecast into the last week of July.