Holiday weekend is here, and it still looks sunny, hot and dry. We have no reason to change the nearby forecast. We see no threat of rain at all from today through next Tuesday. Temps will continue to climb, and humidity values stay high. Heat indexes will push the upper 90s to triple digits by early next week. The map at right shows high temps next Thursday afternoon (actual temps, not heat index). WE see near maximum evaporation, held in check only by a lack of surface moisture to truly evaporate.
Wednesday through Friday of next week we continue to stay warm, but we have a slightly better chance of heat based convection over Ohio. I am keeping an eye out for late afternoon/eve showers and thunderstorms each day from late Wednesday through late Friday. Coverage will be no better than 30-40%, and the best period for action may be Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Still, do not count o moisture here, as these thunderstorms will be largely hit and miss. WE just cant rule them out.
We have been watching the potential for an old tropical system to make a run at us for late next week and weekend. That system is still around, and at this point we are going to go ahead and insert better rain potential in our forecast for next Saturday into Sunday. Now, anytime you have a tropical system as a component of the forecast, you have to allow for things to change quickly. There is no guarantee this actually makes it up into Ohio. In fact, we suspect it will stay a little farther south into KY and TN. But, for now, data shows potential to make it in here .Overall, we would be looking at rain totals at .25″-.75″ over 80% of the state, with the threat of some thunderstorms in southern Ohio boosting totals much higher there. But again, we have low confidence that this actually 1) holds together and 2) makes it this far north and east. So, stay tuned. And, after the 5-8 day stretch we have coming at us…we suggest keeping “fingers crossed” too!
Have a great independence day weekend. We’ll see you again on Monday!.