Another good day today, but our weekend is on track to turn wet. We are making no changes to our nearby forecast this morning, meaning we turn out partly to mostly sunny, warm and more humid today. Clouds will start to build over northern Ohio late this afternoon and evening, especially NW OH.
A significant storm complex moves out of WI into MI late this afternoon and tonight This front sweeps south and east tomorrow. We can see showers and storms from after midnight tonight forward in the farthest north and west ares of the state, and then through tomorrow elsewhere. Rain totals can be from .25″-1″ over 90% of the state. On Sunday, we see sunshine try and return in the north, but lingering showers are likely from I-70 south. Rain totals there can be an additional few hundredths to half an inch. The upper end rain totals for Saturday will be limited to areas where thunderstorms develop, which should be somewhat isolated. The strongest storms by far stay north. The map at right shows precipitation potential for the event through Sunday night. The bulk of this moisture comes Saturday.
Next week still looks mostly dry. The pattern is a little more unsettled for Monday through Wednesday, and because of that we wont rule out a couple of showers or thunderstorms those days. The biggest threat would be in western and southwestern parts of the state. However, we are not convinced that significant moisture is able to come together. We will be reevaluating this over the weekend and will have an updated look Monday morning, of course. Still we see at least some sun, stay rather warm and very muggy. Then from Thursday through the holiday weekend, we turn out mostly sunny, hot and humid. Rain chances are very low in that period.
The extended period still looks unsettled, with an organized system showing potential for rain and thunderstorms on the 6th. Then we see mixed clouds and sun of the rest of the period and a chance of pop up heat based showers. Daily coverage would be no more than about 30% at best, but still, the chance of moisture has to stay in the forecast for now