Bigger moisture threats today and tomorrow as a cold front works closer from the northwest, interacting with the warm, moist flow of air from the south. We expect showers to be developing through the day today from south to north, and the best threat of thunderstorms likely ends up in southeastern parts of Ohio. Then overnight tonight through tomorrow we see showers over most of Ohio. Combined rain totals today and tomorrow will be .25″-1″, but the 1″totals will be limited to the stronger thunderstorm areas in southeast Ohio. Most of us will be more in the .25″-.75″ range. Coverage of rain today and tomorrow will be nearly 100%. The map at right shows rain totals through midnight tomorrow.
The cold front passes late tomorrow and we begin to clear almost immediately. Mostly sunny skies are expected Saturday through Monday with excellent drying. We will be cooler, particularly Sunday, but not quite as cool as we had feared earlier this week. Below normal temps for sure. Temps begin to warm early next week Monday afternoon and Tuesday. On Tuesday, most of the state stays partly sunny, but we have to watch for more clouds in the northern quarter of the state, as a minor disturbance crosses MI into Ontario.
Wednesday scattered showers move through with a minor trough sagging across the state. Moisture totals will be generally half an inch or less with coverage at 60%. Then we return to dry, sunny weather for Thursday through the end of next weekend. Temps will be warming as well, and we finish the 10 day period above normal.
The heat continues for the extended 11-16 day window. We will see temps well above normal. This will likely fuel some thunderstorm development on a pop up basis, but we have no significant frontal passages in the extended period. We will not go fully dry, due to not wanting to overlook heat based thunderstorm potential. But, we will be seeing coverage of any thunderstorm outbreak be in the 40-50% range, allowing for some drier holes to emerge. We will keep watching this pattern development closely.