We have to go with a wetter forecast this morning, unfortunately. After picking up significant rains to finish last week and this weekend, we see our most recent rain system running into some resistance as it tries to leave to the east. This slowing may be due to a tropical wave slowly moving toward development in the tropical Atlantic, or due to some other reason, but in any case, the result is clear: scattered showers linger over most of Ohio through today, and we cant completely rule them out tomorrow either. Rain totals today can be from another .5″-.1.5″ over 70% of the state, and tomorrow a .25″-1″ with 50% coverage. That yields some excessive rains in spots. The map at right shows moisture potential between this morning and Wednesday morning. Any sunshine of major quantity today or tomorrow should be looked at as a bonus.
We still do have dry weather coming this week. Sunshine returns in full force Wednesday, and we stay sunny and dry from there right on through Sunday. Now, Sunday afternoon clouds will be increasing and we have to keep an eye out for a few scattered showers late in the day, bringing no more than a quarter inch with 30% coverage. But, other than that, we should be warm with good evaporation and drying for that 5 day stretch. The question becomes: “will that be enough?”
Showers and thunderstorms are back for Memorial Day on Monday and again on Tuesday the 26th. Rain totals can be from .3″-1.25″ with coverage at 90% of Ohio.
For the extended 11-16 day period, we start dry with 3 days of sunshine and rain free conditions Wednesday the 27th through Friday the 29th. Once again, evaporation will be to the higher side of normal, nearly maximum at .3″ per day. But, then we get very unsettled for the remainder of the extended window. We cant rule out scattered showers any day from the 30th through the 2nd. There will be no more than 40% coverage any day, and rain totals will generally be under .25″ but that also means that drying will be slow and potentially interrupted a couple of times.
Generally this forecast is not bad for crops in the ground. However, for the remaining crops to go it, we become more challenged to get in the fields. Windows of opportunity still exist, but will be narrower, and will favor lighter ground first, if there is much left, for activity and field work. We are done with the cold air, though – temps through early June will be normal to above normal.