The 10 day forecast can be put together in a short write up this morning. Rain the next 4 days, followed by 6 days of sunny, dry weather! This pattern is going to do an about face twice…once today as we go wetter, and then again early next week, swinging back the other way.
Rain today spreads mostly over the northern half of the state. We expect rain and perhaps a thunderstorm or two from I-70 north. The showers spread statewide overnight tonight through tomorrow with 90% coverage, then on Saturday a few hit and miss showers hold over southern Ohio, from I-70 south. Sunday we finish it all off with another round of showers and 90% coverage statewide. Rain totals for the combined 4 day period will be from .75″-1.5″ in most areas. Now, the wild card will be thunderstorms. This morning we think the best thunderstorm threats out of this rain event will be farther west over IN and IL. But, if thunderstorms do develop with more frequency over Ohio, that would cause us to need to raise the upper end of the rain range. Stay tuned. The map at right shows cumulative rain totals Today through Sunday.
Monday we see moisture exiting to the east in the pre-dawn hours, and the rest of the day turns out at least partly sunny. We stay partly to mostly sunny, warm and precipitation free the entire week, Monday through Saturday. Temps will be above normal, and that, with the sunshine, should promote excellent drying and evaporation. In fact, if we can stay to the lower end of out aforementioned rain range, we should see drying facilitate a return to the fields for the second half of the week (or sooner on lighter ground). Just another reason to keep fingers crossed on missing those thunderstorms.
The extended period still is somewhat unsettled, but with the dry pattern for next week, we think it will take a stronger front to bring solid rain potential. There is a front to watch late in the Memorial Day holiday weekend, but timing is uncertain at the moment. Also, we are seeing the most active precipitation track over the US stay well off to the north and west, over the upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes. With warm air finally taking over, it will take a little work to advance that track farther south again.