A big pattern change is coming this week. We start with precipitation free days back to back to back, but then string together 4, if not 5 days straight with shower chances across Ohio. We are cold to start, but when the moisture starts increasing, so do the temps. Lets walk through this wild stretch.
Today, tomorrow and Wednesday we should see a decent amount of sunshine. Temps will be cool today and tomorrow, still a good 10-15 degrees above normal on daytime highs, and lows will be flirting with the middle to lower 30s… good enough for some patchy frost, but no killing temps like we saw over the early part of this past weekend. Wednesday clouds will be increasing in the afternoon, and we should see temps a little warmer, but still not “mild” by any stretch.
We shift out of those dry days into a very active forecast pattern for the last half of the week and the weekend. Scattered showers move over northern Ohio on Thursday. Generally speaking, we see .1″-.75″ over 80% of areas from US 30 north. However, the rest of the state sees mixed clouds and sun. Temps will really be moderating in southern Ohio. Friday, showers move through the entire state, with rain totals of .25″-1″ and 80% coverage. Scattered showers are around both Saturday and Sunday with rain chances Saturday at .1″-.75″, on 75% coverage and on Sunday a few hundredths to .5″ with no more than 40% coverage. There can be another wave of rain on Monday to start next week. Thunderstorms can be part of that wave, with rain totals at .25″-1.25″ and coverage at 90%. The combined 5 days bring rain totals of .75″-2.5″ — way more than we would like to see. The map of those totals sits at right.
We finish out the 10 day window going back dry for next Tuesday and Wednesday with full sunshine. Temps finally stay warm. That will produce good evaporation rates, which will be needed after all of the moisture this week. In the extended period, we keep the drier trend going, with only 1 front moving through Ohio from the night of Friday the 22nd into Saturday the 23rd. Rains there can be from .1″-.5″ with coverage at 70%. Then we stay dry through Memorial day and that following Wednesday. That is good news. It means we should see another good window for field work emerging.