We embark on a damp 3 day stretch in Ohio today. Scattered showers move over the state today, but moisture totals will be pretty light. We look for no more than a few hundredths to a tenth or two. WE end up with coverage today around 60% of the state. Tomorrow a frontal complex comes into the state from the west, bringing rain, and the moisture lingers through Thursday. We think there will be 3 surges of moisture with this event Wednesday and Thursday, and combined we still likely end up with .5″-1.5″ rain totals over 100% of Ohio. The map at right shows an updated look at rain potential now through Thursday. This will slow any thoughts of field work dramatically, and we will be hoping for totals toward the lower end of the range too, if we cant flat out miss the moisture.
We are drier for the finish of the week Friday and Saturday. Temps near normal and we should end up with pretty good evaporation. On Sunday we have moisture that fires off along a weak old boundary, running from OH bake into southeast KS. This moisture slowly sags south with the surface trough, and will likely produce .1″-.5″ of rain in areas from US 30 southward. We cant rule out moisture farther north than that, but it is not as likely.
Dry in all areas of the state for Monday. Tuesday starts with sunshine, but clouds increase in the afternoon. Then overnight next Tuesday night through Wednesday the 6th, another strong storm complex moves through the eastern US. This low has a track that is slightly farther south this morning, but still will bring rain to about 70% of Ohio for the the Tuesday night-Wednesday period. Rain totals can be from .25″-1.5″ in areas where it rains, with the heaviest potential in southern Ohio near the river. We are drier and cooler behind that system for the 7th and 8th.
For the extended period, there is potential to stay dry for most of the period. We see a well organized system for the 13th coming in from the west and south, but other than that, only some hit and miss pop up action for now. The concern about moisture around the 10th has eased a bit.