Unfortunately, we have no change in our forecast for this week, and unfortunately, we are having to change our forecast for this weekend and next week…adding more chances of rain. It seems mother nature wants to make sure we look like forecasting fools when we thought we could see some extended dry weather. We are having to add showers for this coming Sunday, and again next Tuesday, which will make it difficult to see significant field work as the calendar flips fully into May.
This week we have a strong storm complex still on track to pound Ohio at midweek. Before we get there, we have minor moisture to deal with overnight tonight into early tomorrow. Today features a mix of clouds and sun, but clouds increase late this afternoon and evening. Scattered showers likely move across Ohio after midnight tonight through midday tomorrow, bringing minor rains to the state. We are looking for a few hundredths to at most .3″ over 50% of the state, skewed more north and northwest. This disturbance is more of a feature for Michigan and the Great Lakes. We are just caught in the fringe. After a dry, but mostly cloudy balance of Tuesday, we are gearing up for big rains at midweek.
Rain develops Wednesday and then continues through at least midday Thursday. Rain and even a few thunderstorms can bring rain totals of .5″-1.5″ for 100% of the state. Nobody escapes rain, and a large part of the state will be at least pushing toward .75″-1″. Rain potential for the event shown at right. Temps cool while the rains fall.
We finally get some sunshine with dry air for Friday and Saturday, but temps remain on the cooler side of normal. We should see those temps climb more on Saturday than Friday.
The remains of an old frontal boundary that stretches from eastern KS across Ohio reactivate Sunday, triggering scattered showers that slowly sag south over the state. We see these rains producing a wide range of moisture, from .1″ to 1″, with the heaviest in central and southern parts of Ohio. We have coverage at 80%, with areas north of US 20 the most likely to miss out on this rain. After a break on Monday, we have another round of rain returning. This time its a cold front exiting the plains and moving east. This brings rains from .25″-1″ to 80% of Ohio, and again the better rain chances will be from US 20 south. This front has some wraparound backside moisture that we have to contend with too, and that means we cant rule out a scattered to isolated shower or two on Wednesday the 6th as we finish the 10 day period.
The extended 11-16 day forecast period has less moisture, but still 1 system that moves through right in the middle. WE have rain and thunderstorms on teh way for Saturday the 9th with 100% coverage. Rain totals can be from half to 1 inch. The rest of the period from the 7th through the 12th should be dry with a good amount of sunshine.
This forecast, with the added moisture this weekend and early next week, shows that ramping up planting at this time has become a much more difficult thing to do. Stay tuned.