Some moderately good news in the forecast this morning. If you recall, 24 hours ago, we had concern about having to raise moisture totals for the systems crossing Ohio this weekend and next week. We did not make any changes to the forecast immediately, because it is foolish to change forecasts based on 1 model run. And, our rule on things like that turned out to be spot on once again. Models have backed off the high rain totals out of both systems. Now, we are not able to escape the rains…and we are keeping our totals where they were, but at least we are not talking about gully-washing rains in the next week or so!
Today, showers will be crossing all of Ohio. We had been keeping hope that some areas would be able to miss the rains, and perhaps NW OH was one of those areas. Alas, we don’t think many will have such luck. Showers end up with 90% coverage statewide today, with rain totals from a few hundredths to half an inch over areas from I-70 north, and we still see potential for heavier rains from I-70 south, to the tune of .5″-1.5″. To be clear, the 1″+ totals will be in far south central OH, near the river. But, no matter what, most of us are getting wet today. We are dry tomorrow with sunshine and mild air.
We start Saturday with some sun and strong south flow. However, showers are set to return late afternoon and continue through Sunday. Rain totals will stay at .25″-1″ in most areas. Still…this is much better than what models were trying to show yesterday for the event. The map at right shows rain potential from the weekend event. We follow up with a dry, and mild Monday.
The second system comes Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Showers are likely and we can see the potential for a couple of thunderstorms. Generally, we are keeping rain totals at .25″-1″ over 100% of Ohio. Interestingly enough, the track of our weekend system is farther south, sparing us the heaviest rain, and the system next week is tracking farther north, putting the big rains up into MI and Ontario, again sparing us the worst. We’ll continue to monitor the tracks of each event.
Dry and sunny next Thursday, partly sunny Friday. We are inserting a chance for a few widely scattered showers in west central Ohio overnight Friday night (5/1) but totals will be a tenth or two max, coverage 40%.
The extended period for 5/2 through 5/8 is mostly dry. One system rips through quickly on Sunday the 3rd with rain most of the day. But the rest of the period is dry, warm and has excellent evaporation potential. We still feel that the first week to 10 days of May could be a fantastic field work window, and there is nothing in this mornings outlook that changes our thoughts there.