Potentially some bad news this morning, as models started to go wetter late yesterday. We are not making wholesale changes to our forecast this morning, but if we get confirming model runs through the day today, that new data will be hard to ignore, and we will have to raise rain totals for the weekend system and one for next week.
Today looks pretty good statewide. We see partly sunny skies over all of Ohio today and temps will moderate a bit as south flow tries to return. Tomorrow scattered showers move in. We expect 85% coverage of rain, but totals will vary dramatically from north to south. Areas from I-70 north will see anywhere from a few hundredths to .4″, while areas from I-70 south tomorrow can look for .4″-1.4″. The heaviest rains and thunderstorm potential will be in far southern parts of the state. By comparison the best chance of missing all moisture will be in NW Ohio. The map at right shows our thoughts for tomorrow. Dry again for all of the state Friday with partly sunny skies.
This weekend is wet. Rain arrives Saturday and continues through Sunday. Rain totals for the 2 day period stand at .25″-1″ with coverage at 100%. However, as mentioned above, models are suggesting higher totals, so stay tuned, we may have to raise them. WE take a break for Monday and get some sunshine back, Then from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday of next week, we have another system ,moving through. This one had been slated to stay farther south, and models are now lifting the track farther northeast. At the moment, we are leaving rains totals at .25″-1″ with coverage at 80% of Ohio, but if the track does prove right, much higher rains are possible along with a pretty good thunderstorm outbreak. We will take another look at this system in 24 hours and tweak the forecast if needed.
We finish the 10 day period with partly sunny and dry weather for next Thursday through Saturday. However, temps fall off, and we will be rather chilly. We may end up similar to yesterday’s temps across the state. This will limit drying some. The extended forecast period brings a chance of showers for Sunday the 3rd and Wednesday the 6th, but those chances are sketchy for the time being. In fact, models are still in pretty good disagreement on the extended period, with some suggesting we stay dry all the way through. At this point we are introducing the threat of showers on the 3rd and 6th, and may be able to take them out here in the days ahead. Keep your fingers crossed.