Colder air is blasting into Ohio, right on cue. This move was expected, as the colder air was on the move through the Great Lakes going back into yesterday. Still, the cold air moving into the warmer air mass that had set up here is triggering plenty of clouds for today, along with a few scattered showers. Most of the action today will be a few hundredths to a tenth or two, but we may see coverage at 60% before all is said and done. The best light moisture potential will be in the north. Tomorrow we get better sunshine back, and temps will moderate.
Scattered showers work into Ohio for Thursday, but will end up with 50% coverage at best. We expect 2 bands…one far north (mostly US 20 northward), and the other limited to the far southern quarter of Ohio. In the north we end up with a few hundredths to .2″, while southern Ohio can see up to .4″. Friday is dry again, with sunshine, as we see a bit of a break before the stronger front arrives.
We are wetter for the entire weekend now, because rain is waiting to develop until overnight Friday. Showers continue through Saturday and then wrap around moisture keeps light scattered showers over Ohio through most of Sunday too. We may see rain end midday and afternoon Sunday in western Ohio, but likely not in central and eastern locations. Combined, with the long tail of this system, we still need to leave the door open for rain totals of .25″-1″. We are less concerned about thunderstorms this morning, but the long, drawn out nature of the rain will lend itself to higher rain potential. The map at right shows rain potential for the entire weekend event.
Next week looks drier, but colder again. We get full sunshine for Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday rain that is moving through the TN valley and up near the OH river is able to come across into the southern quarter to third of the state. There we can see rains up to another .75″. However, farther north, just clouds for the most part. Then Mostly sunny and milder next Thursday to finish out the 10 day window.
The extended period looks dry and relatively calm. We are putting partly to mostly sunny skies into our forecast from next Friday the 1st through Wednesday the 6th. Models are not in good agreement for that period. For example, a US model has a very unsettled pattern for those days…not a lot of rain, but not much drying either. We think that the active precipitation track for the extended period shifts farther north and west, and upstream looks to be drying to, so we are championing a drier solution at this time. If the pattern comes together in this way, that means we would be looking at a great planting window for a large part of Ohio there in early May.