The forecast continues to unfold pretty much as expected over the state here in the short term. However, we are starting to have some concerns about a wetter move in the forecast models farther out. Right now we are leaving our forecast alone, because the models have just started to make these dramatic changes over the past couple of runs…but if we continue to see more data backing a wetter solution, we will have to adjust our forecast look, starting with the second half of next week. We will be pouring over data over the weekend and will revise our thoughts on Monday, if it turns out we need to.
Nearby, we have cold air blasting into Ohio today. This is coming with a fast moving front that first started to impact the Great Lakes late yesterday. The leading edge of the system is already through, and now we deal with strong northwest flow and some wrap around moisture for the day today. The result is a temperature profile that is well below normal today, and a chance for some wet snowflakes across Ohio too. We are not really concerned about accumulation anywhere away from the shores of Lake Erie, but there could be a dusting at times on some grassy surfaces. Coverage will be between 70% and 80% for the day today.
Sunshine dominates tomorrow through the weekend and even most of Monday. Temps moderate through the period, with a very mild Sunday expected and above normal temps even Monday. Clouds start to build a bit Monday afternoon. However, we are pushing our next round of precipitation back just a bit more, seeing most of it wait until after dark on Monday night. Once rains start, though, they will continue through the overnight period Monday night, and then through a large part of Tuesday, evening mid-afternoon. Rain totals will run from .25″-.75″ with coverage at 90% of Ohio. The map at right is our latest look at that system.
The forecast gets a little more squirrelly from next Wednesday forward. We have been expecting a somewhat unsettled pattern for Wednesday through Friday, but generally had been looking for only a few scattered showers through the period, especially into Thursday. We hold on to that forecast this morning, but will throw out that we models are wetter, with showers potentially each day Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. That moisture is likely overdone, but we will look at it again Monday morning. We will see temps near normal through the period, with no major cold expected.
Dry for next weekend (14th-15th) with mild air. Then the extended period looks like it is trying to go wetter. We have no problem with a wetter forecast, but the amount of moisture being shown into the eastern corn belt is very excessive at this time. We think that moisture is 1) to high and 2) too far north. But, we will also be watching the evolution of the late next week patter for cues as to how our extended period pattern will evolve.
For the time being…stay warm today, and enjoy the weekend. Prospects for field/outdoor work next week are somewhat in doubt.