Cooler today, as we get more sunshine through the day. The moisture that moved in over night is exiting to the east this morning. By the time we get to midnight tonight, we will actually see weak high pressure setting up along the IN-OH line, south of Greenville. Temps today will be a good 10-13 degrees colder than the mild push we saw yesterday.
We start off with some sun tomorrow morning, but clouds will start to build at midday. By mid to late afternoon we end up with scattered precipitation starting to come in from the west, with the best chances evening and overnight. The best rains will be from I-70 south, where we can see .1″-.5″ totals maximum, and coverage at 80%. north of I-70, we see significantly lower potential…only a few hundredths to at most a tenth, and coverage at 40%. This is a much less moisture laden system than we were seeing a few days back, which is a good thing. We move back to dry weather for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, with mixed amounts of clouds and sun. Colder air initially comes in for Sunday and even Monday is cool, but temps will moderate by Tuesday. Wednesday is partly sunny and mild, but clouds will thicken late in the day.
The pattern turns more unsettled next Thursday. We cant rule out scattered showers overnight Wednesday night and then showers pick up in frequency and intensity through Thursday. However, the available moisture is not all that impressive. We think we end up with .25″-.5″ and 60% coverage in that period. A second wave of moisture comes late Thursday overnight through Friday, and that one is still somewhat impressive. WE add another .25″-1″ over 90% of the state there. However, when you look at those two days combined, you end up with rain totals of half to 1.5″, which is still quite a bit under our previous forecast (see map at right). We see the trend here toward less moisture with each successive model and data run. We don’t think the system is going to ever drop off to minimal rain, but it is nice to see the threat of excessive moisture pull back some.
We finish the 10 day period with a return to cooler air. Saturday we keep a lot of clouds around, and even a few lingering showers in far southern and eastern parts of Ohio. Sunday the 22nd should turn out partly sunny, but chilly.