No major changes to the weather outlook this morning. We will be getting very wet this weekend, but will also be getting rather warm, starting with today. Here is the rundown as we see it this morning.
Today will feature increasing clouds. Sunshine this morning will linger into midday, and then the cloud development starts to accelerate. Temps also jump dramatically today. We should end up a good 20-25 degrees warmer than yesterday, thanks to strong south flow. This south flow is ahead of our next strong frontal complex that brings the rain tomorrow and Saturday. The south winds will wrap the warmer, more moisture laden air into the system, and amplify precipitation potential. Winds likely start to ramp up a bit too overnight tonight through tomorrow.
Rain begins overnight tonight with just general showers. We do not expect any organized action before midnight. Through tomorrow we see showers continue, spreading across the entire state. The Friday rain action will be steady, but generally light. Then a second wave is still on the way for Saturday into early Sunday. This is where we can see moderate to heavy rain. However, the move farther north and west with the heaviest rains that we talked about yesterday still holds today. That means the heaviest rains will be farther west in IN and north into lower MI. We are keeping event rain totals this morning at 1-3″ with coverage at 100%. The map at right shows moisture potential through Sunday morning.
Colder air comes in on Sunday too, meaning precipitation can end as some wet snowflakes. However, the bulk of the moisture is gone as the cold air arrives, so we expect no major snow issues…only a few flurries here and there. By Sunday afternoon we should see at least partial clearing, with more on the way for Sunday night. Monday starts with sun, but clouds should increase in the afternoon and evening.
The next frontal complex to watch will be a fast moving cold front bringing rain for Tuesday. This system has potential for .3″-.9″ with 90% coverage. We follow that with more moisture late in the week from late Thursday through Friday and Saturday. That system starts with rain again, but then finishes as snow on Saturday morning, and we cant rule out accumulations. Still , this is a very active pattern, and one that features plenty of temperatures winds. We do seem to stair-step temps down over time, though, with these temperature swings, which supports our thoughts of a much colder February being just beyond the horizon.