Clouds build through the day today and we have a significant system that works its way through the region from overnight tonight through Sunday morning. We really don’t look for any precipitation to break out here until after sunset and honestly it will probably be near or after midnight before we get too much action. However, it will be chilly through the day today and temps will not really moderate much until a warm front slips through overnight and brings the warm sector air into the region. That being said, we think that the initial moisture that breaks out tonight in western Ohio will be light snow or flurries, and then we begin to see a changeover in precipitation type as action spreads across the state. In southern Ohio, generally we are expecting all rain. In northern areas, and particularly NW Ohio, we are concerned about a period of freezing rain between midnight and 8am, before rain takes over as the predominating type of precipitation over the entire state for most of the rest of the day. Late tomorrow afternoon we have cold air blasting back into the region behind the frontal boundary, and there will be some lingering moisture. While we don’t think widespread snow is likely in Ohio, we still cant rule out a coating to an inch or two over northern location as the system is trying to exit late tomorrow. Liquid equivalent precipitation totals stay pretty stagnant with our early forecasts, as we look for .25″-1″ over 100% of the state. Freezing rain and snow in some areas may skew rain totals slightly. The map at right shows total precipitation (liquid equivalent) through Sunday morning.
Significantly colder air is on the way behind this front, and it could end up being the coldest air of the season so far. This cold push and strong NW flow will mean lake effect snow is possible. MI takes the brunt of all of this, but we can see Lake Erie trigger some action too in north central and particularly NE Ohio all day Sunday and Monday. The rest of the state will just see mixed clouds and sun both days. Cold air stays here through Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday as well, although we get back closer to normal.
Late next week we are seeing signs of another disturbance working into the eastern corn belt. However, it seems a bit more fragmented. We will keep the possibility of precipitation later Friday and add the chance of spotty action Saturday, but generally we think this will turn into a threat that will be able to be quantified more once the track of low pressure becomes more certain. Still, we do not expect a dramatic warm up, and that means at least 8 of the next 10 days will be normal to below for daytime highs.