No significant change in our forecast pattern this morning, but we are seeing the need to tweak a few things regarding our weekend system…it looks the same intensity or moisture availability-wise, but temperatures may end up messing with precipitation type just a bit. More on that in a bit.
Today should be mostly dry, but we will see some clouds across Ohio. These come from a system passing by to our north over MI and Ontario ,and a system passing by to our south over KY, TN and WV. We are stuck in the middle…no precipitation, but off shoot clouds from both waves. This will also serve as a bit of a set up for better precipitation chances tomorrow. Temps will be a little milder today.
Clouds increase tomorrow, and moisture likely pushes in during the afternoon. IT continues through the overnight, but will be gone near or before sunrise on Thursday morning. This moisture still looks light. We are keeping rain totals at a few hundredths to .25″, but still think the majority of areas that see light rain will be under a tenth of an inch. Coverage will end up being near 80% of Ohio. We are dry again for Thursday as clouds give way to sun. High pressure tries to move over far southeast IN and southwest OH Thursday afternoon.
Friday looks wet. Clouds build fast in the morning, with moisture arriving in most areas between sunset and midnight. The moisture just continues to build from there, through the overnight and Saturday. Initially we can see rain or snow (perhaps even ice) on Friday evening, but then with a warm air surge we are all rain through the early morning Saturday and into midday. Then cold air comes in behind the front, with still plenty of moisture circulating through the region. We think there is a bigger potential for accumulating snow now as the system winds down and leaves Saturday midday and afternoon. We are leaving total moisture from the system still at .25″-1″ (updated map at right), but now think a coating to 2 inches of snow is possible from I-70 north Saturday afternoon and evening, and then lake effect snow boosts totals in NE Ohio through Saturday overnight.
Sunday and Monday will feature lake effect snow potential on strong NW flow across the great lakes. Clouds from this set up will dominate northern Ohio in general, but the lake snow accumulation will be limited to areas from US 20 north generally. Much, much, much colder air is in with this air mass and it looks to stay through the rest of the 10 day period. Temps will be below normal. While we expect a mix of clouds and sun over the rest of the state Sunday and Monday, we should turn out partly to mostly sunny (but cold) for the entire state Tuesday through next Thursday. High pressure will be nearby for the entire week next week.