Wet weather is here. Today’s precipitation will be relatively gentle. However we can see heavier rains tomorrow and tomorrow night, and that is where our biggest rain totals will come in the shortest period. All told we do not see any reason to back away from our 1″-3″ projections for all of Ohio. The map at right shows rain potential through Sunday morning – we think that SE Ohio has better chances than shown on this map. Cold air comes blasting in Sunday morning, and that may allow a brief bit of rain end as wet snowflakes, but generally speaking, snow is not a big issue in our forecast with this system. We should start to see some clearing Sunday afternoon, and the we stay dry with a mix of clouds and sun for Monday and Tuesday. On Tuesday we may have to allow for a few showers in far south central Ohio, but that feature looks more like it wants to stay south into Kentucky.
Wednesday rain is back in Ohio. A system moving through from west to east brings shower and rain totals of .1″-.5″ to 80% of the state. Temps to get warm enough for all liquid precipitation, with no threat of snow. We turn colder behind the front on Thursday with partly sunny skies, then get another system for late in the week. Rain Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning triggers rains from .25″-1.25″ over 100% of Ohio. The front that brings that moisture is significant, though, because it also is bringing a dramatic change in air-mass. We will be turning much, much colder next Saturday afternoon. The cold air may produces some snow in northern Ohio (from US 30 northward), and minor accumulations on Saturday. Lake effect snow is possible the next two days on Sunday and Monday in the wake of the frontal passage as cold air picks up reinforcing flow out of the north and northwest.
The rest of the extended period has very cold air remaining in place. Temperatures will be well below normal from Sunday the 19th through Saturday the 25th. However, we only see one actual frontal passage in that time frame, so only one system with precipitation potential. That looks to be snow on Friday the 24th, and it can bring accumulation, if development continues as projected at this time.
So, we stick with the status quo in the short term, through this weekend and most of next week with regard to warm air. But, temps fall off the proverbial cliff behind the late week front this coming week, and we finally get a longer taste of winter…potentially a taste we haven’t seen since back in November.