Colder air remains over the state today. A frontal boundary passed yesterday, allowing this cold surge into the region. This is just leg one. Leg two (and I would suggest the stronger push of cold) comes early next week. more on that in a bit.
We should see better sunshine today, as high pressure sits right over the top of the ECB. Once we move onto the backside of the high (tomorrow) we should start to see temps moderate We stay dry tomorrow, as well as Sunday, although clouds start to builds Sunday afternoon and at night. Sunday likely is the warmest day out of the next 10.
Our next front arrives overnight Sunday night and then continues to sweep through Ohio on Monday. Cold air comes quickly, and precipitation will be happening in that cold air mass. Therefore, we are looking at snow showers developing through the day Monday, where we can end up with anywhere from a coating to a couple of inches, depending on location. There can be some lake interaction through Monday too, particularly Monday late afternoon and Monday night which will boost localized snow totals in north central and northeast Ohio. Snows can continue through the overnight in north and east locations. To be clear, the moisture availability is such that we are not talking about a lot of snow, but we clearly are not going to be talking about good drying for that 24-36 hour period. The map at right shows snow potential through Tuesday mid morning.
Brutal cold air comes in behind the front for Tuesday through Thursday. Temps will be upwards of 25 degrees below normal with the worst on Tuesday. The map at right shows temps vs. normal Tuesday night…only the lake keeps a few areas on NE Ohio from bottoming out like the rest of us. We likely struggle to get out of the 20s at midweek next week, and some single digit lows will be working in on occasion. But, we are dry all the way through. Dryness continues next Friday and Saturday, but temps start to moderate
Moving into the extended forecast period we stay dry for Sunday the 17th, then overnight Sunday night through Monday we have rain showers developing. These showers are not all that impressive, but we do have potential for a few hundredths to .3″. Most of that comes in the northern half to third of the state, say from US 30 northward. Southern Ohio likely ends up with nothing.
A much bigger storm complex arrives for Wednesday the 20th. This will be all rain again, as temps stay mild. However, we see moderate to heavy rain, with rain totals of .5″-1.5″ over 100% of Ohio. This far out, we think there may even be a threat of thunderstorms! We finish out the extended period with sunny, dry weather, and temps stay mild.
So, while the next 7-10 days are nasty, we warm afterwards. But, the warmth likely triggers more moisture. So, the best harvest potential comes in the cold, but that will not help the natural dry-down of grain in field. Basically we try and choose the best looking pig in the pen.