Drier weather finally returns to Ohio after a soggy past few days. Clouds will be giving way to sunshine today, but we may not get full sunshine in all areas. Still, precipitation like we have seen the past few days will be off to the east. Much colder air is here and will stay around for several days. Strong west and north winds dominate our region the next 2 days, and that may trigger a lot of lake effect clouds tomorrow over the northern part of the state, and even a few snow flakes. The best lake effect snow potential will be in far NE Ohio. Sunday will be mostly sunny, then Monday clouds will follow sunshine but temps will moderate.
A minor trough boundary sneaks through overnight Monday night into early Tuesday, and then we see a secondary batch of limited moisture Wednesday morning and midday. However, even combined, this moisture potential is significantly lower than was expected a few days ago. So, we will continue to watch the period closely, but right now think we can trend our forecast a little drier for the first half of next week. Right now pencil in a few hundredths to .5″ combined.
The wildcard in the forecast remains the second half of next week. Models are highly variable regarding a significant low pressure system and its track into the eastern US. This morning the pattern looks drier, but we are not going to take out moisture yet. We will re-evaluate things early next week, but for now are keeping showers for late week. Right now taking the heaviest rains out, saying more along the lines of .1″-.7″, with the heaviest east. Map at right shows 10 day moisture potential combined.
The extended period is mostly dry too, with only a threat of action for the 11th-12th, where we can see rain totals of .25″-1.25″ over 80% of Ohio. Temps now through the 20th will feature some wide swings, but in general will not be as dramatic as the past week. Every front/trough will take temps back to below normal levels, but the swings will not be as large.