Some warmer air pushes into Ohio today, and that warmer surge lingers through the weekend. We are making a few changes to our forecast this morning, one in the short haul (tomorrow) and one farther out (the finish of next week). In general, we still look for a more active precipitation pattern and a more variable temperature pattern as we transition through the rest of this month and into November.
Sunny and warm today. Tomorrow we see partly sunny skies. Clouds may thicken a little in the afternoon, and we cant rule out a spit or sprinkle overnight, but generally, we see less of a threat of moisture tomorrow night than we had been seeing earlier this week. This will be a welcome development. Keep an eye on the sky, but generally we think most of the state can escape. Sunday looks mostly sunny and we remain warm.
We are bringing our next strong cold front faster now. Clouds increase Monday morning and midday, and we can see showers and thunderstorms arriving already in the mid afternoon. Rains continue overnight and will end by mid morning Tuesday at the latest. In fact, we could even be rain free in western Ohio at sunrise, with showers only needing to leave eastern Ohio by midday. However, rain totals look more impressive. We think we could see rain totals of half to 1.5″ over 100% of Ohio. The totals of an inch or more are heavily dependent on thunderstorms, but with the storm coming sooner, the timing is better for some thunderstorms, at least in western Ohio.
Dry behind the front for the balance of Tuesday and then Wednesday and Thursday. It will be cold Tuesday afternoon and night, then temps moderate by Thursday. Sunshine should be the dominant feature for most of daytime hours.
Late next week and weekend our next storm system looks much more impressive. We are going to be slow to move our official rain forecast totals once again, just like we were slow to drop rain from the forecast for this period earlier this week when models tried to take it out. The front is there. Its intensity and duration are up for debate. Some models have rain solid for 3 days. We think this will be more of a fast moving front, and the stalled boundary manifests farther south. In any case, continue to look for at least .25″-1″ of rain potential, and we may have to bump totals closer to 2 inches or more next week when we see a weekend’s worth of data. We are keeping fingers crossed for lower totals…as heavy rains at this point will really jack with harvest.
The extended 11-16 day period has one minor precipitation event, but otherwise is mostly dry. Unfortunately it gets very cold, so that precipitation event could yield some snow. Monday the 28th will be mostly sunny and mild. Then clouds increase Tuesday the 29th, bringing evening and overnight precipitation. Temps fall fast, and we think we can see some rain showers, but also a few snow showers and flurries, particularly up north. Accumulations are not a concern at this point…but our first flakes of the season could be flying. The rest of the extended period is sunny, but cold from Wednesday the 30th through Saturday, November 2nd.