The big chatter for the week is that we are going to see a massive “heat dome” envelope the eastern corn belt. Before you get too excited, let’s bring this talk back to earth just a bit. We are going to be much more conservative in our look at this. Yes, it will be significantly warmer this week. But remember, we have been cooler than normal almost every day this month so far…so we maintain that the “warmth” we see for most days in the up coming pattern will just be enough to manage a return to normal September weather for the month. I also think that models are also way over stating the heat potential…the European thinks we get to 94-95 degrees, and the more conservative GFS still says lower 90s. Don’t get us wrong…Wednesday-Thursday will be rather warm. I do think we end up well above normal over most of Ohio those days, but we also have a threat of moisture coming late Wednesday, which will likely cap any big run in temps just a bit. Anyway, the take-away here is that there is potential for the warmth story to not be as dramatic as what has been promoted through multiple other sources over the past few days. Time will tell, and hopefully we do get some warmth. Our feeling is that it ultimately will not be anywhere what we truly need – which is warmth like Wednesday-Thursday for about 2-3 weeks straight. But, that is a story for another day. Back to the local weather pattern for the next 10 days to 2 weeks.
Today we see a mix of clouds and sun as the remains of the moisture that trekked across the eastern corn belt yesterday moves off to the east. We see better sunshine tomorrow through midday Wednesday with dry weather all the way through that period. Clouds will be increasing Wednesday afternoon, and we have to watch for a few scattered showers Wednesday evening past midnight over northern Ohio. From I-70 north, we cant rule out picking up a few hundredths to a few tenths, but coverage only about 40%. Thursday will bring partly to mostly sunny skies to central and western Ohio, but the eastern third of the state, particularly in NE Ohio, will see an additional .25″-.75″ of rain as action from that Wednesday wave amplifies just a bit.
Clouds increase again on Friday with rain developing as a frontal boundary sweeps through. Our action likely holds off until mid afternoon ,but then goes through evening and past midnight before ending. The showers bring .25″-.6″ to about 60% of the state. Action will be done before sunrise Saturday morning.
Sunny, drier and slightly cooler weather returns for the weekend through next Tuesday. Clouds will start to builds Tuesday afternoon, with a chance of scattered showers Tuesday night in far SW Ohio. We end up with a quarter of an inch or less there overnight Tuesday night, and only 20% coverage. Wednesday turns out partly to mostly sunny again, as rains stay farther west in to IN and KY.
The extended period has a nice dry start, with sunshine Thursday through Saturday the 21st. On Sunday the 22nd, clouds increase, and we should see some shower action by afternoon. The rains continue and pick up intensity to start the following week Monday the 23rd. Rain totals there can be .25″-1″ with coverage at 90%. Then we turn much cooler and dry again for Tuesday the 24th.