No significant change in the forecast this morning. We continue to be very warm with temps above normal. This will continue into tomorrow before a cold front moves through. We have moisture chances the next two days. Today its just heat based instability, and the best rain potential through most of the day stays to the north. Tomorrow, our moisture develops with a frontal boundary that finally passes through. Here are the forecast details.
Today will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. Temps above normal in all ares. While we cant rule out a couple of showers, generally, the daytime hours will see the action farther north over Lake Erie and up into Ontario. Then late this afternoon and this evening, we can see some moisture over the northern third of the state, particularly NE Ohio, but even that has very spotty coverage and low totals.
Tomorrow we are very warm again, as our cold front holds off until late afternoon and evening before passing through. So, sun starts the day , with clouds increasing in the afternoon. Rains from late afternoon through the overnight night will range from .1″-8″ with coverage at 75% of the state. However, it will take some stronger thunderstorms tonight to get to the upper end of the range, and that will likely be limited to northeast parts of the state, but not completely confined there. Everything is done by mid morning Saturday.
We turn out partly sunny and cooler behind the front for Saturday, then stay dry with sunny to partly cloudy skies from Sunday through most of next week. The only hiccup may end up being net Friday, where we can pick up a couple of widely scattered showers, but even then, the coverage will be 30% of the state or less. Temps will climb some, and will spend most of next week near to slightly above normal, but will not be anywhere near what we are currently experiencing.
In the extended period, we have rains from next Saturday night through Sunday that can bring .25″-1″ with 80% coverage. Then another system around Wednesday the 25th triggers up to an additional half inch. Otherwise, we are dry. The extended period turns significantly cooler behind the system that passes the 21st and 22nd. Temps will be below normal, and we can see several pushes to the low 40s for lows in that time frame. It is clear that this warmer pattern is not going to hold for the long haul.