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Marketing in unusual times

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC

While many farmers still doubt last month’s USDA numbers, the rest of the trade is going along with it. Export pace and ethanol grind are weakening, frost threats are declining, and 10-day forecasts are looking very good for the crops. At this point, a production surprise will be needed for a significant price rebound. Maybe a low ear weight will be identified in this week’s USDA report to give the market a boost?

Reports from elevator managers throughout the Midwest say most farmers didn’t sell very much during the recent rally, because they expected prices to go even higher. So, I’m not alone in wishing I would have sold more, but hindsight is always 20/20. Following provides details on three trades I made in the last 4 months. I’ve included my thoughts and rationale when I placed the trade to show context, as well as final outcomes.

 

Trade 1 — Sold straddle

On 4/23/19 when September corn was around $3.70, I sold an August $3.60 straddle (selling both a put and call) and bought a $3.40 put while collecting a net of 29 cents on the trade. This trade was placed on about 10% of my anticipated 2019 production.

 

What does this mean?

  • If Sep corn was $3.60 on 7/26/19, I could keep all 29 cents
  • For every penny corn was below $3.60 I get less premium penny for penny until $3.40
  • For every penny higher than $3.60 I get less premium penny for penny until $3.89
  • At $3.89 or higher I would have to make a corn sale at $3.60 against Sep futures, but I still keep the 29 cents, so it’s like selling $3.89.
  • At $3.40 or lower I would collect 9 cents regardless of how low prices go but no sale is made.

 

My trade thoughts and rationale when placing the straddle on 4/23/19

This trade is most profitable in a sideways market, which I think is the most likely scenario given current market conditions and historical trends. Usually in a normal growing year, prices dip in late August. This straddle helps me gain some premium if the market stays sideways or goes lower, which I can use to help push a final sale to profitable levels down the road. If the market rallies, I’m happy selling 10% of my production at $3.89, because I’ll then “roll” the sale from September to December futures and likely pick up at least 12 to 15 cents in market carry; therefore, manufacturing a trade of at least $4 on Dec corn.

Rolling a contract means moving a sale forward to capture marketing carry. I bought September futures back and immediately sold December futures. It didn’t matter what September or December futures were, only the SPREAD between the two months. My sale position remains the same.

 

What happened?

In the last 4 months, every possible market scenario happened. The market first went lower, then much higher, and finally it collapsed and settled into a sideways pattern. To say it’s been a roller-coaster ride is an understatement.

At the end of July when futures were still above $4.20, I let the options execute to get a $3.60 short on September futures. With the 29-cent premium already collected on the trade, it’s like having a sale at $3.89 Sep futures.

 

What did you do next?

The trade above left me with a short September contract expiring at the end of August, I rolled it to December futures on 8/29/19 and collected 10 cents of market carry premium. This makes the sale really worth $3.99 against December futures with premiums included ($3.60 futures sale + 29 of options premium + 10 cents market carry “roll”).

 

Trade 2 — Sold straddle

On 4/23/19 I did the exact same trade again, for all of the same reasons, except I sold a September straddle instead of August (like in trade 1) which expired on 8/23/19.

 

What happened?

On the last day that September options were trading, when September futures were about $3.59, I paid 2.5 cents to buy back both sides of the straddle and let the $3.40 put expire worthless. I was left with 26.5 cents of premium profit, but no additional sale was made.

I bought back both sides of the straddle on the last day the options were trading. The reason was I didn’t want to let the short put option position execute because that would make me buy futures, and at this point I’m not sure which directions prices can go. I bought the calls backs as well because I thought there was a chance for prices to rally in the future and it would allow me to look for another straddle position to trade in the future.

 

Trade 3 — Bought calls

On 5/28/19 September corn was $4.30, and it seemed likely there would be record widespread planting delays and significant prevent plant acres. Through other trades I already had in place, if the market rallied, 50% of my crop would be sold at $4. However, I wanted to participate if the market continued to go much higher. So, I purchased a $5.50 September call for 6 cents on about 25% of my anticipated 2019 production.

I’m usually against buying calls because the market has to rally substantially to offset/justify the price of the call and the market carry. However, the market was experiencing something never seen before, which meant I needed to consider alternative grain marketing strategies and solutions. I knew I wanted to take advantage of a potential rally, but I didn’t want to “put all my eggs in one basket.” To minimize potential loss from buying a call, and having the market never rally further, I selected a higher price point ($5.50) and lower call cost (6 cents).

Buying these calls was basically an insurance policy if the extreme happened and the market rallied significantly higher.

 

What happened?

The calls expired worthless on 8/23/19. The costs of the calls, were about 1.5 cents across all of my 2019 production, which reduced my profits from Trade 2 (about 2.6 cents of profit from my 2019 production) by about 60%, but I’m still ahead. With all three trades combined, I have 10% of my production sold at $4 against December futures. Considering December corn is at $3.55 today I should probably feel better about these trades now.

 

My 2019 corn position

Today I have 45% of my anticipated 2019 production sold with an average price of $3.95 futures. I also have 20% of my 2020 corn sold at $4.14 average futures price.

There has never been a year like this, and harvest hasn’t even started. In June, many thought for the first time the U.S. wouldn’t produce enough corn to meet demand. However, in hindsight, the market focused so heavily on how the widespread planting delays would affect supply, it didn’t examine how price would impact demand.

Questions about acres still linger, but are fading by many market participants. The widespread good weather conditions through August and now September mean a surprise from an upcoming USDA report is likely necessary for a significant rally.

 

Please email jon@superiorfeed.com with any questions or to learn more. Jon grew up raising corn and soybeans on a farm near Beatrice, NE. Upon graduation from The University of Nebraska in Lincoln, he became a grain merchandiser and has been trading corn, soybeans and other grains for the last 18 years, building relationships with end-users in the process. After successfully marketing his father’s grain and getting his MBA, 10 years ago he started helping farmer clients market their grain based upon his principals of farmer education, reducing risk, understanding storage potential and using basis strategy to maximize individual farm operation profits. A big believer in farmer education of futures trading, Jon writes a weekly commentary to farmers interested in learning more and growing their farm operations.

Trading of futures, options, swaps and other derivatives is risky and is not suitable for all persons. All of these investment products are leveraged, and you can lose more than your initial deposit. Each investment product is offered only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful, and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations in such jurisdiction. The information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research before making your investment decisions. Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC is merely providing this information for your general information and the information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision. The contents of this communication and any attachments are for informational purposes only and under no circumstances should they be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation to buy or sell any future, option, swap or other derivative. The sources for the information and any opinions in this communication are believed to be reliable, but Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy of such information or opinions. Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC and its principals and employees may take positions different from any positions described in this communication. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

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One comment

  1. Thank you for sharing on marketing. I really appreciate it

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