No change in the short term forecast as we expect sunny, dry weather statewide today and tomorrow. Humidity values dropped late yesterday and we should be comfortable today before humidity starts to climb again tomorrow to kick off the weekend.
Sunday will be mostly dry too, but clouds will mix with sun. There is a small chance of hit and miss showers…more like sprinkles, across the state as a weak trough drags through, but coverage will be limited to 10-20% maximum. Really, Sunday likely turns out pretty good. Monday follows suit with partly to mostly sunny skies.
The remains of Barry continue to threaten for the middle part of next week. We don’t likely see anything fully into Ohio until later Tuesday afternoon or early Wednesday, but that is still a little sooner than our earlier looks, and reflects a pick up of speed. That makes sense, because in order to get this far north and east, it is going to have to be moving faster. We will put in some shower action over the southwestern part of the state r Tuesday afternoon and evening, and then spread moisture across 60-70% of Ohio for Wednesday. Rain totals can be anywhere from a few hundredths to .6” with coverage at 60% of the area from I-70 southward. The NW areas of the state may see just some clouds from Barry, but right now we think precipitation will not be as big of a deal. Temps stay near to above normal.
Thursday as system arrives in the ECB from the NW, and it brings showers and thunderstorms, but only to about 40% of the state. Rain totals can be from .1”-.75” with coverage at 50%, mostly west and south. Northern areas again have the best potential of missing out on the moisture.
The rest of the week next week and the following weekend turn out partly sunny, warm and humid, but dry. We should make it from Friday the 19th through Sunday the 21st with little to no precipitation threat, although heat based instability will need to be watched for thunderstorm development. The map at right shows 10 day rain potential over Ohio. The distribution of heavier moisture and over all moisture totals/placement will be heavily dependent on the track of Barry…so this map is subject to change by Monday morning!
The extended period has a front bringing showers for Tuesday the 23rd, with rain totals from .1”-.6” across 80% of the state. This is a little sooner than our previous outlook and will need to be watched for timing changes. Thunderstorms could boost those totals if we see good development along the front. Otherwise, the rest of the extended 11-16 day forecast window has partly to mostly sunny skies and dry weather, continuing the current drier pattern and outlook.
Overall, this pattern is drier than normal, but it would only take a little bit more of a northern push, and a slowing of the remains of Barry to change that. Anytime you are dealing with tropical moisture, the line between good moisture and way too much moisture is very fine…so even though there are more and more areas in the state that “could use a rain”…be careful what you wish for if you are hoping for Barry to bring what you need! Temperatures remain normal to above normal for the entire 16 day period…as we have been hinting at over the past few days.