Scattered showers move across Ohio today. Action is going to be pretty light in most areas, but eastern OH and SE areas of the state could see some heavier rains. From later tonight forward, the heaviest action will end up in western PA
Mostly sunny dry and warm weather will be here for tomorrow and Saturday, with temps back to normal and above normal levels. On Sunday we have a few minor showers that may fire off along a frontal boundary coming across Ohio. Moisture totals will be unimpressive, but we ant give a completely dry day either. Areas that miss out on the rain should see a mix of clouds and sun.
Dry Monday and Tuesday as well with sunshine and a few clouds coming up from the south. Temps remain above normal. Monday sees some showers moving across the Great Lakes and MI to the north, but none of that action is threatening further south. Then, the forecast gets a little squirrelly. We continue to expect a named tropical system (“Barry”) to come ashore on the Gulf coast this weekend, with landfall in LA. The system then drifts north. There is still plenty of disagreement on models as to how far north Barry’s remains can come, but models are drifting slightly toward the GFS solution, which keeps rain of any significance down well south of the Ohio river. Right now we think at midweek we dodge the tropical moisture, and late I the week Thursday night into Friday, we cant rule out some hit and miss showers from a weak front coming out of the West and NW. Rain totals will be from a few hundredths to .6” with coverage at 50% in Ohio. The map at right shows rain potential through next Friday morning.
We finish the 10 day window with a dry Saturday (20th), and dry start to Sunday. In the extended 11-16 day period, we remain mostly dry, with our only threat of action coming late, around the 25th, where we can see .2”-.6” over about 70% of the state.
Temps will be mostly above normal now through late July. We may drop back a little below normal behind each front we have (like today), but there are few fronts ready to move through here, so temps skew higher. The one thing to truly watch, for both temps and for overall weather pattern flow, will be this tropical system, and where its track takes it. Where the rain falls, it can be heavy, as the system’s remains will be very slow moving.