We continue to look for and hope for a drier pattern to emerge. However, mother nature continues to give head fakes and have trouble making up her mind. We have a few tweaks to the forecast this morning. There is not a lot of additional moisture in total, but there are chances over more days, and that may end up impacting the temps, more than anything.
Today we turn out dry with sunshine for most of the day, but clouds will be on the increase this afternoon. We can’t rule out late afternoon or evening showers near the I-70 corridor, but we only expect a few hundredth to a tenth or so, and coverage all the way down at 30%.
Tomorrow turns out partly so mostly sunny over most of the state, except for NW Ohio, where we will have to deal with scattered showers. Those showers are not that impressive, but could bring up to .25″. Friday, Saturday and Sunday we see rain chances in the forecast every day. Friday a few hundredths to .3” with 70% coverage, Saturday showers can produce .25″-.6″ over 80% of Ohio, and then on Sunday, we can pick up anywhere from a few hundredths to .3″ on 60% coverage. So, overall, we are not talking about huge moisture. But, to get rain, you have to have clouds, and if we have clouds, we don’t have sun, which limits the warming we can see each of the next few days over the northern half of the state. So, in a scenario where we need GDDs…we are making it more difficult by keeping even minor rains around.
Next week starts dry with Mostly sunny skies Monday and Tuesday to kick off July. Temps will be near normal or even a couple degrees above normal. However, excessive heat is not expected. On Wednesday sun will be followed by increasing clouds, and we expect showers and thunderstorms to develop late afternoon and evening. Rain totals there can be from .1″-.75″ over 75% of Ohio. Independence Day on Thursday remains damp this morning, with cloudy to partly sunny skies, and the chance of showers, bringing a few hundredths to .15″ over about 60% of the state. Everything is done by evening, though, and we still think that most fireworks festivities will be able to proceed. We finish the 10 day window with a sunny, dry day next Friday, the 5th. The map below shows rain totals through the end of the 10 day period.
The extended 11-16 day forecast starts off with a few scattered showers for Saturday the 6th, mostly in the south, where we can see up to .25” and 50% coverage. There should not be anything more than a mix of clouds and sun up north. Sunday the 7th will be sunny, and then a few scattered showers return for Monday the 8th. They bring only a few hundredths to a tenth or two, but coverage will be 70% of the state. Back to dry weather for Tuesday through Thursday to finish the extended period.
So, to reiterate our thoughts inferred above. At this point, we don’t think the forecast is about moisture at all. IF we get more rain…so what. We are just going to fill low areas that are already drowned out anyway. The moisture coming is not all that impressive, and we think that heavy rain will be limited to thunderstorms. Notice, there are not a lot of thunderstorms in our forecast at this time. The problem with the moisture in the forecast is that it comes with clouds, and clouds dim the sun, which keeps the warming we need bay. The crop needs heat units, and with even small chances and amounts of moisture in the forecast, we can pretty much guarantee that we will be disappointed with our accumulation of heat units. We are going to be focusing our thought more on temps going forward. Right now, all can really see in the next 10 days to 2 weeks are temps near normal. Long term warmth is just not there yet.