Not many changes in the near term forecast, but from this weekend forward, our outlook is trending just a little wetter. However, the extended period is up for grabs, with models flip-flopping quite badly. Here is our look this morning.
Today will be rain-free over nearly all of Ohio. South and south west flow will allow temps to climb to normal and above normal levels today. This will increase the instability in our atmosphere as we head in to tomorrow. That is where we see the best moisture potential out of this current system. Showers arrive in western Ohio around midday, and then spread east through the balance of the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be in through the overnight tomorrow night into early Friday morning, triggering .25”-.75” rains over a 80% of the state. The heaviest rains will be mostly south of I-70 where we have the best chance of thunderstorms, both strong and garden variety.
Friday afternoon we will have plenty of clouds and some limited sun, although we may be able to see those clouds give way to more sun before sunset. Colder air returns behind the Thursday frontal complex. We keep sunshine into Saturday as well, but mostly in the morning and midday. Clouds increase again late Saturday afternoon. We have not been able to shake that concern about thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday, and in fact the complex looks to be strengthening this morning. We expect rain and thunderstorms overnight Saturday overnight through all of Sunday with rain totals expected from .5”-2.5” and 90% coverage. The heaviest action again will be in southern Indiana. Clouds mix with some sunshine the rest of Sunday afternoon.
Next week then is mostly dry. Partly to mostly sunny skies will be in over the region Monday, Wednesday and Thursday. A new wrinkle in the forecast allows for scattered showers next Tuesday. The amount of moisture is not that big of a story…we could see up to .3” and perhaps 40%-50% coverage through Wednesday morning. The story, though, is the fact that the moisture in the area interrupts a potential stretch of dry days and slows drying substantially. Hopefully this moisture dissipates, but right now is looking strong enough to hang around.
Another cluster of rain and thunderstorm action comes in late next week for Thursday overnight through Friday morning. Rain potential come in around .25”-.75” with 80% coverage. Friday afternoon starts to see some clearing. The map at right shows total 10 day rainfall potential, if things come together as outlined above. The bulk of the moisture shown on this map would develop Saturday overnight through Sunday.
For the extended 11-16 day window, we start dry for Saturday the 18th. Models then try to bring moderate to heavy rain in for the remaining 5 days of the extended window. We are not making those kinds of changes to our forecast this morning, though, as the dramatic change in model solutions just came on quickly, out of nowhere. Instead, we will continue to look for scattered showers around Monday the 20th into Tuesday the 21st, with potential of .25”-1.5”. We will monitor the extended period going forward, and when a true pattern shows itself, we will adjust our forecast accordingly. However, we don’t feel it is prudent to make any changes of significance this morning.