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Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast, May 3, 2019

Showers are back in Ohio today, and will end up with decent coverage. We are looking at picking up .25″-.75″ of rain across 75% of Ohio. Rain lingers through Saturday as well. During the day its not that big of deal..only a few hundredths to .25″ through evening with coverage at 60%. However, overnight Saturday night through Sunday midday we have a significant wave of moisture coming. Rains and thunderstorms bring .25″-1.5″ rain potential to 80% of Ohio. The heaviest rains will be from I-70 southward, but we still get decent rain chances north of there.There will be some clearing finally moving into the state Sunday afternoon and Monday looks to turn out mostly sunny!

 

Our next big batch of moisture starts to push in on Tuesday, and we are wet through the middle 3 days of the week next week. Tuesday will feature increasing clouds through the morning hours, and then scattered showers develop mainly in areas from US 20 northward by sunset. Totals will be minor, a few hundredths to at most two or three tenths. Wednesday is just a damp feeling day without a lot of new precipitation. We won’t deny there is a chance for scattered showers, but amounts will be a few hundredths to a quarter inch total, and coverage will be 40% or less. The big rain day next week comes Thursday (or actually overnight Wednesday night through Thursday midday) with rain and thunderstorms producing .25”-1” of rain and 100% coverage. This will bring combined rains to .5”-2” for the event, which is unchanged from our previous forecast. With only a day an a half to at most 2 full dry days ahead of that moisture…we truly see no net drying through the end of next week. We should see partly sunny skies emerge next Friday.

 

A new wrinkle in the forecast this morning is a cluster of thunderstorms that is trying to surge northeast next Saturday. Clouds increase Saturday morning and midday. Then rain and thunderstorms arrive at Saturday night and continue through Sunday morning. That rain moves in from the west and southwest, spreading across the state. There is a chance of some strong to severe weather embedded in this system. Rain totals can be from .25″-1″  over 80% of the state. This is a new inclusion in the forecast, so we will be looking for data to back up this solution over the weekend and solidify the rain chances. Feel free to hope we are wrong! The map at right shows cumulative 10 day rainfall potential.

 

Better news is emerging as we finish the 10 day window and move into the extended period. We see sunshine returning for the afternoon of Sunday the 12th, and then our system for early in the 11-16 day widow has diminished greatly. The way we see things now, there is potential for the week after next two be dry with a mix of clouds and sun from Monday the 13th through Thursday the 16th. That would mean 5 days back to back of dry weather, for our first period of net drying in a long time. There is still plenty that can go wrong here, namely that early week system re-strengthening…but tentatively we are going to try and put a little bit of good news out there. Rain is back for the end of the extended period, with .25”-1” totals likely for the combine period of Friday the 17th through Saturday the 18th.

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