Dry weather settles in over the state today behind the rains that came through the eastern corn belt as expected yesterday. WE may still be watching a few renegade showers exit to the north and east this morning in the far eastern part of Ohio, but generally, we are looking pretty good. High pressure drifts across the southern tip of Lake Michigan today and will traverse southern Michigan tomorrow, ending up in SW Ontario tomorrow night. This will bring sunshine, blue sky and excellent drying for both days. That drying will be helped by strong winds that continue to blow today (more from the west and north) and tomorrow (from the south). Evaporation rates should be nearly at maximum, around a quarter of an inch of moisture per day.
We have been talking about the Tuesday night-Wednesday period for a while now as being the key to good drying potential for the week on the whole. We still see some very minor chances for moisture coming in Wednesday morning over the state, but the bigger rain totals all rain themselves out to our west over IL. We expect a few showers Wednesday through the first part of the day may bring a few hundredths to a tenth to perhaps 40% of Ohio. There is a little bit more of a threat of moisture for Thursday now, as we can’t rule out a cluster or two of thunderstorms rotating into far SW parts of Ohio, but generally the state on the whole misses out. In those thunderstorms, rains can be up to .5”. but we should see coverage limited to 30% of the state. Friday is fully dry.
This weekend, we start dry mostly on Saturday, then see scattered showers develop Sunday over the northern half of the state. From I-70 northward, we expect rains from .1”-.6” with coverage at 80%. But, we still have nothing going on Saturday over the southern half of the state. Memorial Day itself on Monday, we are dry over most of the state, with only few thunderstorms possible for far northern areas, from US 20 northward. So, generally, we had been looking for some rain over Memorial Day weekend in our forecast, but our thoughts had been for Monday…we are just pulling that forward a bit. The map at right shows rain potential through Memorial Day.
The rest of the 10 day window may show an increase in activity in the far northern part of the state, with a few showers and storms for Tuesday the 28th from US 30 northward. Rains there can be up to half an inch with 70% coverage. Then on Wednesday those scattered shower sag farther south, with another .05”-.4” possible from I-70 northward. Both of those days we see no moisture over the rest of the state, and we should see good sunshine.
For the extended 11-16 day forecast window, we start wet with showers and thunderstorms state wide for Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st. Combined rain totals can be from .25”-1” with coverage at 90%. The for the first and 2nd, we end up with additional showers from I-70 southward, triggering up to .75” and 70% coverage. For the 3rd and 4th, Scattered showers are back for most of the state. At this time, we are projecting .1”-.5” with 70% coverage. So, the best window of opportunity for the state looks to be coming together for this week.