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Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast, May 15, 2019

We have some good news this morning, as we are trending our 10 day outlook a little drier. We should see some opportunity for field work developing in the days ahead.

 

Partly sunny and mild conditions today, with temps a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Tomorrow is also mostly dry, at least through the daytime hours. In the north sun will be followed by clouds, but we stay partly to mostly sunny over the southern half of the state.

 

Rain and thunderstorms move over the state tomorrow night and continue through Friday. Rain totals will be from .25″-1.5″ with 70% coverage. The heavier rain totals will come from thunderstorms.

 

Saturday will start with some morning showers lingering in NE Ohio, but a mix of clouds and sun statewide, while Sunday brings mostly sunny skies with a windy, warm afternoon. Temps will be well above normal. In fact, we could see the warmest batch of temperatures here in almost 8 months. Scattered showers do arrive in Ohio overnight Sunday night, probably after midnight. These linger across the state through Monday, but there is not really much moisture to work with here. Because of that, a few hundredths to .25” is all we are projecting at the moment, with coverage at 70%.

 

A change in our forecast comes next week. We are now leaning toward partly to mostly sunny skies with a dry pattern for the balance of the week, Tuesday through Friday. In fact, we think high pressure can move across northern Ohio through the day Tuesday. Now, models are not in full agreement here. The oft cited GFS model is still trying to bring in significant rains from next Monday night through Tuesday, with totals up to 1.5 in parts NW OH. However, we think the focal point of this moisture and any associated frontal complex next week will be farther west, from IL back through into the plains.  So, we are trending our forecast drier. We will continue to watch that Tuesday period closely, but for now we are taking moisture out. Thursday may have to be watched for the development of a few scattered showers over the eastern third of Ohio, but generally coverage there, if precipitation pops up, will be under 30%. So, at this time we are keeping the forecast dry, and the rest of the state should be at least partly sunny. Friday also finishes sunny and dry. If you are keeping track at home, that puts us at 4 days rain free next week…and with good evaporation, we may see the ground get fit in a number of places. The map at right shows cumulative rainfall potential through next Friday.

 

The extended period has a little more activity returning. Next Saturday, to start the Memorial Day weekend, we have sunshine up north, but clouds increasing in the south. Those clouds bring a chance of showers with rain potential of up to .4” to the southern third of the state. Then for Sunday, we see those showers try and spread statewide. We can see up to .3” with 70% coverage. The on Memorial Day itself, we turn out cloudy to partly sunny with a few scattered showers popping over the southwest OH. This pattern culminates with rain on Tuesday the 28th with totals from .1”-.6” and coverage of 90%. From there we finish the month with partly to mostly sunny skies the 29th through the 31st.

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