Rain moves across the state today into tomorrow, but we do have a little bit of good news for NW parts of the state. We may actually see NW Ohio miss out on the bigger rain totals over the next 24-36 hours. Now, we make up for that next week, when the north sees more rain than the south…but for the time being, we will take any “improvement” we can get. Today, rains move through the state from west to east, but we see the best rains from US 24 to the south and east. In that part of the state rain totals can be from .5”-2” with coverage at 90%. North and west of US 24, we see rain, but more along the lines of a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch. So, we will not see any drying tomorrow anywhere in the state, but we do not make our current situation that much worse in the north, while we have the potential to really add some problems in the south. Thunderstorms and just an overall constant threat of rain through the day today and overnight tonight. That will be what fuels the higher rain totals over the southern two thirds of the state. The heaviest rain potential will be along and south of I-70.
Friday clouds finally give way to some sunshine in the afternoon, and the limited cloud set up hangs around through the start of Saturday. However,cloud come back relatively quietly Saturday afternoon, and then scattered showers arrive late Saturday night and linger into early Sunday. We can pick up a few hundredths to .3” with 60% coverage, and the best chances for the upper end of the range will be in the northern half of Ohio. Partly sunny skies return on Sunday.
Next week looks wet, with rain 4 of the first 5 days of the work week. Rain on Monday will bring .25”-.75” totals with 100% coverage south of US 30. North of there, we have a few hundredths up to .25” with 80% coverage…a similar set up to what we are seeing today. However, from there, the next two days favor drier weather in the south while rain holds on in the north. Tuesday scattered showers from I-70 north bring up to a quarter of an inch with 70% coverage with nothing going on south of I-70. Wednesday looks similar, with rains from I-70 north triggering .1”-.7” rains and coverage of 100%. Then on Thursday we get scattered showers with 80% statewide coverage but totals only .3” or less. There will be ample moisture around for the first 4 days of the week, particularly in the north. The pattern turns much better behind that rain. The map at right shows updated 10 day precipitation potential.
We turn out partly sunny on Friday and finish the 10 day window on Saturday the 4th with mostly sunny skies. In fact, that day high pressure parks right over the top of SW Indiana to start the Day Saturday, moving into southern Ohio bye late that night. That pattern follows through as we start the extended 11-16 forecast window, with partly to mostly sunny skies for Sunday and Monday as well, the 5th and 6th. That means (if you are keeping track at home) we actually may be able to put together 4 days of dry weather with good sunshine and good evaporation in a row. That has not happened in a while. Unfortunately, when it ends it will do so with some impressive rains.
Tuesday the 7th, a strong front works through the eastern corn belt, bringing rains from .5”-1.5” with 90% coverage. This will interrupt our dry stretch, but we will return to dry weather behind it. We will be partly sunny but cool for Wednesday the 8th, and temps can be below normal. Then we are partly to mostly sunny to finish the extended period for Thursday and Friday, the 9th and 10th.
So, the forecast is a little better this morning, particularly from late next week forward. However, there still is way too much moisture around, especially over the southern half to two thirds of the state before we get to that drier window. So better news, but s till not the best news.