Rain continues today and we wont rule out a few thunderstorms . We expect .25″-1″ of additional rain. Much colder air works into the region today and holds into the start of the weekend tomorrow. This system brings the potential for some significant wrap around moisture too, and we will feel some of the effects of that tomorrow. additional showers and thunderstorms to move across Ohio tomorrow in that wrap around, bringing another .25″-1″ with 80% coverage. It will be breezy. Sunday should not feature any more precipitation, but clouds likely will persistent…and at best we think we turn out cloudy to partly sunny. The map at right shows storm system rain totals through Sunday morning. This includes what fell last night.
Next week’s weather pattern has become a little more difficult to pinpoint. Models have diverged dramatically in their projections. The European model is trending much drier for the entire week. Meanwhile, the GFS (American) model keeps moisture around most of the week. Now, we HOPE that the European solution turns out to be right. However, we do not think that is the case. With all the moisture we picked up yesterday, the additional rain today and the wrap around moisture tomorrow…we think the atmosphere will be carrying plenty of moisture as the next troughs move through the eastern corn belt. The true answer for next week likely lies somewhere in-between the two model solutions. For today, we think we get a little bit of a break at least to start off the week on Monday morning and afternoon. Showers move into far northern Ohio at night. Then Tuesday additional showers move through bringing .1″-.4″ with 80% For Wednesday ad Thursday, we expect additional scattered showers, with 90% coverage Wednesday, but only spotty action Thursday. rain totals can be up to .6″. Finally, we should start to dry down next Friday. Models are in good agreement on a nice, dry set of days next weekend, Saturday and Sunday.
For the extended period, the pattern picks up in intensity and frequency of precipitation. Clouds increase Monday the 29th with rains from late afternoon and evening through the overnight. Those totals come to .25”-.75” with 100% coverage. A bit of dry weather in for Tuesday the 30th, then showers start off the month of May on the 1st, with a chance of .1”-.3” and 80% coverage. A stronger system comes through the region over a 3 day period to finish the 16 day forecast window, form the 2nd through the 4th. This system will bring half to 2” and 90% coverage.
So, the “make it or break it” part of this forecast comes down to next week. If we get the atmosphere to gravitate closer to the European thoughts, that may give large parts of the state a dry period of up to 5 days back to back. However, if we don’t see that, we probably only end up with no more than 2-3 days consecutive with no rain. Temps continue to look normal over the long haul, with a colder push nearby today and tomorrow, and then again, another cold push May 2nd and 3rd.