Cold air came blasting back into the state late yesterday…an unwelcome intruder once again. This morning we are seeing temps down at 35 degrees or below over a large chunk of northern Ohio, and even were getting reports of some sloppy wet snowflakes in NE Ohio. Moisture this morning lingers over the eastern half of the state but is trying to push off to the east. We think it will be slow transition to dry weather in the east today, but we eventually get there. Clouds will be giving way to sun in the west this morning, and we should see that continue across the state through the day. Don’t be surprised to see some spits or sprinkles in the east this morning and midday (even a few flurries in NE Ohio), but it will not last all day. High pressure is working across southern Indiana today, but that does mean we will spend basically the entire day in strong north and northwest flow coming around the front and topside of the high. We will transition to south flow around the backside of the high tomorrow into midweek. So, today (this morning) will likely be the coolest of the week, but we should be able to build our temps some from here.
Tomorrow turns out partly to mostly sunny and warmer thanks to that south flow. Temps should be normal to above normal over most of the state. Wednesday also looks mild, but sun will give way to clouds through the day. We won’t rule out a few sprinkles later Wednesday afternoon and evening, but really nothing of consequence until Thursday.
On Thursday we have rain and thunderstorms spreading across the state with the potential for some strong to severe weather Thursday night. Right now, we expect rain totals Thursday of .25”-1.5” with 100% coverage. The higher rain totals will come via thunderstorms, but the line of potential action looks significant, so a large part of the state has the potential to get the heavier rains. Showers linger through Friday and Saturday, but with much lighter intensity and lower coverage. On Friday, lingering showers can bring a few hundredths to .15” to 60% of the state, while Saturdays action triggers a few hundredths to .25” over 70% of the state, particularly from I-70 northward. The map at right shows rain potential for the week, ending midnight Sunday night. With rain potential over 3 days…that means we see no drying there. The cold today limits good drying, so for the week, between now and Saturday, we may see only 1.5-2 days of good, solid drying potential.
We turn out partly sunny on Sunday and see a mix of clouds and sun on Monday, with temps near normal. Rains return next Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms arriving from NW to SE. We end up with 75% coverage over the state for Tuesday with rains of .25”-1”. Then Wednesday we see rains concentrate more on the southern half of the state, with a few hundredths to .4”, mostly from I-70 south. Again, no significant drying there.
The extended period starts off with potentially our longest dry stretch in some time. Currently, we see no significant rain threat from next Thursday (25th) through Sunday (28th). Temps look to be near normal, and this may be our first good drying period for the month. Evaporation rates should be near maximum of .25” of liquid per day. But, given the rains between now and then, we have to ask: “is it enough?” Rains are back for Monday the 29th and Tuesday the 30th, with at least .25”-.75” of liquid potential.