The forecast is rather simple this morning, because we see our next 16 days divided into two distinct patterns, and we shift back and forth between them.
Rain works across Ohio today. This is part of that strong storm circulation lifting up through the plains and upper Midwest. The circulation is huge…but the strength of the system also means there is a lot of dry air wrapping into the low. The result will be some showers and thunderstorms here through the day, but there will be some on an off characteristics to the event. Overall, we think the best thunderstorm threats will be south during the day, but tonight, especially closer to midnight, we think there can be a second batch of storms in eastern Ohio. We are projecting .25”-1” rain totals over 80% of the state, with the higher totals most likely in areas where we see thunderstorms. It will be mild and become rather windy. The strongest winds are in later this afternoon and tonight through tomorrow morning as we approach the cold frontal passage. The map at right shows precipitation through sunrise tomorrow.
Tomorrow we see a mix of cloud and sun over a majority of the state. However, the west to northwest flow across the Great Lakes will actually trigger some lake effect clouds from Michigan down into northern Indiana and northern Ohio as the colder air takes hold of the region. We won’t rule out spits and sprinkles in the northern and northeastern parts of the state tomorrow, and perhaps even a lake effect snow flake or two tomorrow night, but that is not really a big concern at this time. The biggest risk for precipitation and the longest lasting clouds will be in NE Ohio, thanks to those strong lake winds. Again, the rest of the state looks pretty good for tomorrow, especially from US 30 southward.
A long, dry stretch settles in for this Saturday through next Saturday. We will be partly to mostly sunny with near to slightly above normal temps. A gorgeous run of weather across Ohio for late March.
We get into the extended period and swing the pattern back wet. Rain develops next Saturday night and we see showers off and on through Monday. This will bring half to 1” of rain with 80% coverage. Then a second batch of moisture arrives Tuesday night and goes through Wednesday, adding another .25”-.5” and 100% coverage. Then, we finish the extended pattern going back dry for Thursday and Friday, the last days of the month.