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Weather outlook into spring

By Jim Noel, NOAA

The weather and climate pattern has been on a real roller coaster ride and it is expected to continue right into spring.

Currently, the climate models are struggling to deal with the ocean conditions in the Pacific Ocean. Most models have been forecasting an El Nino this winter into spring and it just has not happened as of this time. In addition, without an El Nino or La Nina going on, this creates greater uncertainty in our weather and climate. It appears this may at least last into early spring.

February is shaping up to be wet with significant temperatures swings. Rainfall is forecast to range from about 2 inches in far northern Ohio to possibly 6 in southern Ohio over the next two weeks. Combine the rain with recent snowmelt and icemelt and conditions will be very wet and muddy.

Many climate models are suggesting a warmer and drier than normal spring but based on recent trends, it appears to be shaping up to be normal or wetter than normal into April but uncertainty is high.

You can see updated potential for flooding at the NOAA/NWS/OHRFC flood briefing pages:

https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/FloodBriefing

The 16-day rainfall potential map is located here:

https://www.weather.gov/images/ohrfc/dynamic/NAEFS16.apcp.mean.total.png

You can also see updated seasonal outlooks at the NOAA/NWS/OHRFC seasonal briefing pages here:

https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/SeasonalBriefing

 

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