Rain continues over the state today, and probably will not completely leave Ohio until sometime tomorrow morning. We look for additional rains to total .5”-1.5” over a majority of the state. We even have a chance of a thunderstorm or two. The thunderstorm potential comes thanks to significantly colder air that will start to come in on the backside of the cold front that is triggering this rain. The big difference will be similar to spring-time fronts. Thunder won’t be a major deal, but we do expect several bands of heavier rain, particularly in central and southwest Ohio. The map at right shows additional rain potential today through midday tomorrow.
After moisture moves out tomorrow, we turn significantly colder. However, by mid to late afternoon we should also turn out partly sunny and breezy to go along with our colder air. It may take a little bit to get the clouds to break up in parts of the state, especially up north, but generally we settle in for a good 36-48 hours of dryness here. We should see the entire state below freezing for tomorrow afternoon and the winds will make it feel colder, generally out of the north at 12-25 mph. Cold air lingers through the weekend, with partly sunny skies on Saturday, but increasing clouds Sunday. We still expect scattered light snow showers Sunday afternoon and evening, giving a coating to 1 inch of snow, with coverage at 60% of the state. We stay cold next Monday but should be partly sunny again over most of the state. There will be some scattered rain shower action over far southern Ohio on Monday, with rain totals from .1”-.5” there, while the rest of Ohio sees nothing.
Tuesday continues to look more and more interesting. We believe this system will end up being a significant event for the state. We still expect a rain and snow event, but the rains are tracking farther north on some of the latest model runs. Right now, we are keeping the system as “all snow” in NW Ohio. However, over the rest of the state, it is too early to call one type from the other. The low looks to track from more north, over central Indiana and into north central Ohio. That kind of track would likely put most areas (outside of NW OH) into more of a potential rain threat. However, this track is nowhere near set in stone. For now, we will just trend wetter, as overall moisture potential is higher this morning. Liquid equivalent precipitation totals have jumped to .25”-1.25, and an inch and a half would not be out of the question. We will keep watching the event and tweak things further, if needed, tomorrow.
We turn colder again next Wednesday with partly sunny skies, and then Thursday, while the cold temps stay, clouds begin to increase. Temps could stay subfreezing again all day Wednesday.
Valentine’s night gets a little more interesting. A frontal complex works in from Thursday night through Friday morning. The current track of the low has snow potential in north central and northwest Ohio, but south and east we end up with mostly rain. Like the Tuesday event, it comes down to track, but this time, cold air is chomping at the bit to dominate. It turns very windy overnight next Thursday night, and that may create some visibility problems early on Friday. However, we clear out by next Friday afternoon. Sunshine will dominate through next Saturday.
For the extended period, we have some rain arriving for Sunday the 17th with .25”-.75” potential, then we turn much colder again for the following week. Dry Presidents Day, then increasing clouds for Tuesday the 19th. We have a chance of snow developing from I-70 southward, Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but nothing farther north. Sun is back for Wednesday afternoon, then Thursday and Friday of next week feature a mix of clouds and sun, with the potential for a few flurries here and there. Temps will be below normal for most of the extended 11-16 day forecast window.