Clouds and a bit of light precipitation hangs around this morning over Ohio, with lake effect snow potential still off an on today in NE Ohio. However, we should see some improvement through the day. Clouds will break up a bit toward midday and we should see some sunshine trying to work through from time to time in the afternoon. The improvement still looks like somewhat of a short-term development. A minor disturbance drifts across the state tomorrow, bringing minor snows. The action comes into western Ohio around midday and spreads east before drifting south through the evening and overnight. Moisture is not impressive with only a few hundredths to a tenth of liquid equivalent, but that could yield a coating to an inch of light snow with 60% coverage. The map at right shows the Thursday action.
Dry weather is back on Friday and holds all the way through next Thursday morning. A strong system is passing by to the south of the Ohio river this weekend. That will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air that comes into the state over the weekend, taking temps well below normal. This should help to firm up ground conditions a bit. It will be the longest dry window we have seen statewide in quite a while.
Toward the end of the 10-day period we see moisture returning. South winds will promote some warming over the state, and light rains move in for next Thursday midday through Thursday night. Rain totals will be from .1” to .5” with 70% coverage. However, a bigger watch point is the following Friday. Some models are suggesting a stronger second bubble of moisture up on to the area from the southwest. If this comes together, it would trigger rains of .25”-1” over the state, with the focus on the southwest quadrant of Ohio. We want to see a little more data and information pointing this way before making big changes to the forecast, though.
In the extended period, we are pushing our main system back about 24 hours. We still look for good rains to fall on the 17th and that moisture ends as snow on the 18th. Moisture totals are not as impressive as our earlier look, but we are keeping .25”-1” rain potential in, and then just some minor snows. A second system is trying to develop closer to the 20th, but would be all snow, as it stands right now.