I think we get away with another 2 days with no precipitation over Ohio. Today definitely. We may be dealing with a bit of leftover precipitation in NE Ohio this morning, but generally, the state looks pretty good. Some clouds were around yesterday, and we wont rule out some today, but nothing significant. Tonight and tomorrow we see rains starting to work into Indiana, but they seem to die as they move east. WE wont rule out a bit of moisture in western or NW Ohio, but think your Friday looks mostly dry too, at least over a majority of the state. That will change tomorrow night.
Thick clouds and well organized precipitation pushes into SW Ohio tomorrow night, and then continues to spread across the state through the overnight, through Friday and finally leaves early Sunday morning. This moisture is fairly consistent through that entire period, but generally stays over the southern half of the state. We look for precipitation through the period to run from half to 1.5″ with 80% coverage south of I-70. North of there little to no rain, with a dry outlook completely north of US 30. This rain action will be streaming west to east hitting the same areas over and over…which is leading to our higher rain totals. Everything should be done by mid morning Sunday. The map at right shows rain totals through Sunday morning.
We turn dry in all areas from Sunday afternoon through next Wednesday. High pressure will be in control, with 2 high pressure centers sliding across the state in that period. Temps will not fall off that much, and we should stay near normal through midweek next week.
Moisture is back for the second half of next week, as scattered showers arrive Thursday, likely around midday or early afternoon. At this time we are expecting .1”-.5” rain potential with coverage at 80% of the state. This system may skew a slight focus on the northern half of the state, but honestly it’s a bit early to finesse the forecast that much. We will watch it. The low tracks across NW Indiana, which puts all of Ohio in the warm (south flow) sector, keeping all precipitation rain. Action should be done by next Friday morning. Dry but turning colder behind that system next Friday, which can lead to a chance of very light snow next Saturday, the 22nd. This will not be enough snow to really talk much about a white Christmas yet.
The extended period is relatively dry, especially through Christmas. Models are split on temps, but we think a move to colder air for the week of Christmas is likely, cold enough to support snow, if any moisture were to materialize. Right now, we are going to keep a dry pattern through most of the 11-16 day forecast window, with our only system in that period coming for Friday the 28th. A south flow ahead of the strong low would bring warm air in, enough to at least have the moisture start as rain, and we could see .25”-.75” of precipitation out of that event.