By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile
With rains across the Midwest during the last half of October delaying harvest, a common thread of anticipation for this report suggested both U.S. corn and soybean yields would be reduced. The Nov. 8 report was negative for soybeans and wheat. Early gains in corn of 7 cents quickly evaporated.
Many traders had also expected China’s soybean imports to be reduced. Various reports in recent weeks have suggested that China would be reducing the amount of protein used in their hog rations. This potential ration change has been discussed for months, it is not new news. USDA put their soybean imports with this report at 90 million tons. Last month it was 94 million tons. The June report estimated China’s soybean imports at 103 million tons.
Soybean production was 4.60 billion bushels, the yield was 52.1 bushels per acre, and ending stocks were 955 million bushels. Last month the soybean production was 4.690 billion bushels with a yield of 53.1 bushels. Soybean exports were cut 160 million bushels. Ending stocks were up 70 million bushels.
USDA’s corn production was 14.626 billion bushels with a yield at 178.9. Last month it was 14.778 billion bushels and a yield of 180.7 per acre. Corn ending stocks were 1.736 billion bushels. Ending stocks last month were 1.813 billion bushels.
Just prior to the noon report, corn was up 3 cents, soybeans down 3 cents, and wheat was up 1 cent. Following the report, corn was down 2 cents, soybeans down 14 cents, and wheat was down 5 cents.
Ohio producers continue to fight to get their remaining corn and soybean acres harvested. Rains that came on Monday for many were heavier than expected, already adding to high frustration levels with harvest not yet wrapped up. Across Ohio more rain is expected.
Earlier this week USDA estimated the U.S. corn harvest at 76%. The 5-year average is 77% completed. Last year, corn harvested was just 68%. Soybean harvest this week was 83% while the 5-year average is 89%. Last year the soybean harvest was 89% complete.
While not report day driven, farmers and many others want the U.S. Farm Bill to get wrapped up as soon as possible. In this fashion, producers can know what to expect. The goal has to be for this session of Congress to complete the Farm Bill. Otherwise, you have a crop of dozens of brand new legislators to be educated on this process. That scenario only drags out the process by months and into next spring.
On trade it has already been suggested that with the U.S. House of Representatives now in the hands of the Democrats, they will be equally tough on the trade issues with China.