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USDA friendly corn and soybeans with production and yield less than expected

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

Overall the trade had expected a bearish report with soybean production to increase, along with increasing yield and ending stocks. The trade had expected corn ending stocks to increase with little changes in the corn yield.

All eyes are on soybeans as traders are assuming it is a given for production and yield to again climb higher. Key to the soybean numbers will be U.S. exports. Will USDA pull them lower with the U.S. export of soybeans to China not yet resolved?

Soybean production was 4.690 billion bushels, the yield was 53.1 bushels per acre, and ending stocks were 885 million bushels. Last month the soybean production was 4.693 billion bushels, the yield was 52.8 bushels, while ending stocks were 845 million bushels. For weeks some analysts have been expecting the U.S. soybean carryout to eventually climb over one billion bushels. The previous record was 574 million bushels. Soybean exports were unchanged. Ending stocks were up 40 million bushels.

USDA’s corn production was 14.778 billion bushels. Last month it was 14.827 billion bushels. The corn yield estimate was 180.7 bushels, with the September yield at 181.3 bushels per acre. Corn ending stocks were 1.813 billion bushels. Last month it was 1.774 billion bushels. Corn ending stocks were up 39 million bushels.

Just prior to the noon report, corn, soybeans, and wheat were all down 2 cents. Following the report, corn was up 6 cents, soybeans up 8 cents, and wheat up 4 cents.

The market expects in coming months for Russia wheat exports to decline while U.S. wheat exports could be increasing. More time is needed to see if this really takes place.

Harvest in Ohio the last 10 days has soybean and corn damage significantly higher than in the past. Soybean damage out of the field has been up to 30% in isolated cases. Many central and southern Ohio facilities have raised their soybean discount schedule as a monetary discount to a much steeper discount than in the past. Frequent rains during August and early September provided ideal conditions for insects and disease to reduce the quality for both soybeans and corn. Some southern Ohio locations have limited soybean damage to 5% with higher damaged loads being rejected.

Earlier this week USDA estimated the U.S. corn harvest at 34%. The 5-year average is 26% completed. Last year, corn harvested was just 21%. Soybean harvest this week was 32% while the 5 year average is 36%. Last year the soybean harvest was 34% complete.

With the rains of the last two weeks, Ohio producers are struggling to get soybeans harvested in order for timely wheat planting to take place. Recent rains across the U.S. Plains have wheat off to one of its best starts in recent history. U.S. wheat and U.S. corn acres look to be increasing for 2019 while U.S. soybean acres are expected to decline.

The U.S. stock market had a huge meltdown yesterday along with a lower U.S. dollar and lower crude oil prices. The mood of producers is not being buoyed by low prices, extremely wide basis levels for harvest delivery of corn and soybeans, as well as the monetary discounts for damaged corn and soybeans.

December CBOT corn at $3.70 and November CBOT soybeans at $8.75 are strong resistance. Prices in the past week have approached those numbers but unable to close above those levels.

 

 

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