We finally got our stationary front to move north and act like a warm front yesterday, and the results were good…warm, sunny weather with a strong south wind to help dry down. We should see a repeat today, with well above normal temps and strong south winds.
We are making no significant changes to the forecast for tomorrow and Thursday, as we still expect that strong cold front out west to move through here. Significant rains show up tomorrow late afternoon, but more so tomorrow evening as that front exits IN and prepares to move across the state. By the time it gets here, the norther part of the front will be moving faster than the south, so rains will work through in that manner. Rains continue through Thursday morning and may hold on in a few areas in eastern parts of the state into midday Thursday. However, everything should be done shortly thereafter. We will keep our concern about strong storms and the potential for some severe weather. Moderate to heavy rains are still possible too, but don’t look to be as widespread. It looks to us like this storm is going to rain itself out somewhat because it is taking so long to move through. We actually feel we could get away with dropping rain totals this morning to .25″-1″ for tomorrow night and Thursday, but will leave 1.5” on the top end just to cover any stronger thunderstorms of heavier rains, mostly in northern parts of the state. We continue to be concerned about this front producing gusty winds, which will not be friendly to mature crops waiting to be harvested. The state will see 100% coverage on these rains. The map shows rain potential through Thursday evening.
Dry Thursday night through Saturday. We are making a change in our late week and weekend forecast this morning, taking rain out of the Friday period, but putting rains in for Sunday and Monday. The dry Thursday through Saturday period will feature cooler temps, back closer to normal for this time of year and good NW winds.
Rains for Sunday and Monday do not look exceptionally strong, but we do keep rain chances around for the full 48-hour period. This is a system that is riding the next wave of cool air in from the north, and as such can bring good rain chances. WE see better potential in the north vs. the south, but still think we can see .25”-.75” rains over 70% of the state through the 2-day period.
The rest of the forecast is unchanged. We are dry behind that front through the rest of the week. The dryness extends through the majority of the 11-16 day extended period too, and at this point we will keep our small chance for a bit of moisture around the 23rd. Right now, it looks like a few hundredths to a tenth, mostly north.