A dry day to start the week here today as strong southwest flow keeps temperatures above normal. We should see good sunshine through the day over most of the state with good dry down and low humidity values.
Precipitation works across the state tomorrow, starting off around sunrise over the eastern third of Ohio, but building back west from there. All told, we can see a few hundredths to at least three quarters of an inch of rain over about 70% of the state. the higher rain totals will be in north central to northeast parts of the state, but a large part of Ohio can see a quarter to half an inch combined through the day tomorrow. All action should be done before midnight, if not before. We are dry for Wednesday.
Thursday rain returns midday to early afternoon with showers and a chance for a few thundershowers. Then rain continues through Friday. Rain totals can be .25″-1″ with coverage at about 70% of the state. The best rains are on Thursday, and only a few scattered showers with 30% coverage on Friday. There will still be plenty of holes in the rain.
Dry Saturday. Then on Sunday, we do have a few showers trying to sag southward out of the Great Lakes and Michigan. These can work down to at least around the US 30 corridor and would bring up to half an inch of rain. The southern half of the the state really doesn’t see any significant threat out of this event. Right now we will keep potential for scattered showers from I-70 northward, but may tweak that as we move along. The entire state is dry for next Monday.
A strong front looks to arrive near the end of the 10-day window next Wednesday. This front is a slow-moving front and can bring rain totals of a quarter to .75″ 80% of the state at midweek. The map at right shows cumulative rain totals for Ohio now through next Wednesday.
That front at the end of the 10-day period also will be the seed for a very wet 11-16 day extended period. We are seeing signs that the front stalls out draped over the state, and it may be responsible for precipitation all the way from next Thursday through the following Monday (the 15th). Rain totals combined over that 5-day window will be from half to 1.5” with coverage at 100% of the state. We then are drier, but still cooler for the 16th and 17th.
Temperatures will likely average 10-20 degrees above normal now through midweek next week. We really do not see any cool down until we get behind the front that starts to bring moisture at midweek next week. But, if that front truly does stall out…we could see a significant temperatures spread across the state through the first half of the 11-16 day window. Still, with the warm air here, that would aid dry down in between moisture events, and gives hope that harvest can move forward.