Mostly dry today and tomorrow. Notice we still are saying “mostly…”. Much like yesterday, where scattered showers reared up and moved over northern and northwestern parts of Ohio, we can’t rule out a bit of action today and tomorrow. However, it should be smaller in scope than yesterday, and be less intense. Still, we can’t completely wave the all clear flag yet. Temps stay at above normal levels, and south flow will keep humidity levels elevated.
Our next good threat of rain comes Thursday afternoon into Friday, and that kicks of a fairly active weather pattern over the state. Thursday, we see a front sweeping in that brings rains on the order of a quarter to three quarters of an inch over 60% of the state. These rains will slowly sag through, mostly drifting from north to south. This should lead to a mostly dry Friday, although we expect some lingering showers though at least the morning in far southern parts of the state.
A strong frontal complex approaches from the west on Saturday and looks to be augmented by the remains of Tropical system “Gordon”. Gordon makes landfall sometime late this week in Mississippi and/or Louisiana, then curves through the mid Mississippi river valley and sweeps across IN into lower Michigan and southern Ontario. We will see a large segment of the state dry through the day Saturday, but the thunderstorms to the west will be impressive. The best push of rain comes Sunday as the actual remaining low from Gordon sweeps cross IN, MI and NW OH. Rain can be heavy, especially north and northwest, and thunderstorms can be strong. The rains can linger through Monday, particularly down south. All told, weekend rains can be from .25″ to 1.25 inches, and we have concern that a few areas could try and exceed that upper limit. However, we are going to stay conservative in the forecast for right now. The map at right is a snapshot of potential Sunday morning.
Midweek next week can be very interesting. We are keeping rain in the forecast for late Tuesday through Wednesday and Thursday. However, the little disturbance that tries to work through is completely cut off from any significant circulation. This means the precipitation potential is light, and may easily go away, depending on how the weekend storm complex lifts off to the north and east. We can see this period ending up drier as we get closer to it.
For the extended 11-16 day forecast window, we have a minor front toward the end of next week late Friday that brings scattered showers and rain potential up to .25” to about 50% of the state. Then toward the end of the extended period, we have a stronger system working in that has potential for half to 1.5” rains over 80% of the state. The pattern looks like we continue to see ample moisture into the start of the second half of the month. Whether it turns out to be excessive or not remains to be seen…but the tropics are getting much, much more active, and if the track of the tropical storms heads into the gulf, it would help keep the pattern wetter.